| 海温异常对东亚夏季风影响机理的研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈丽娟,袁媛,杨明珠,左金清,李维京.海温异常对东亚夏季风影响机理的研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(5):521-532. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈丽娟 袁媛 杨明珠 左金清 李维京 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气候中心 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室，北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 资助项目：国家重点基础研究发展计划（2013CB430203), 国家自然科学基金项目（41275073，41005038）, 国家科技支撑项目（2009BAC51B05） |
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| 摘 要： | 从短期气候预测关注的外强迫信号角度出发，回顾了国内外在海温异常对东亚夏季风和我国汛期降水影响机理方面的主要研究进展，重点评述了热带太平洋ENSO循环、热带印度洋全区一致型海温模态、热带印度洋海温异常偶极子、南印度洋偶极子和北大西洋海温三极子模态的年际变化及其对东亚夏季风年际变率的影响。从研究成果在短期气候预测业务中应用的角度，重点关注海温异常和东亚夏季风年际变率以及我国汛期降水多雨带位置的关系，总结了海温异常作为外强迫信号对我国汛期降水预测的指示意义以及汛期降水预测的难度。最后指出气候预测业务对东亚夏季风影响的机理研究和动力气候模式发展方面的需求。
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| 关 键 词： | 外强迫信号 海温异常 东亚夏季风 汛期降水 |
| 收稿时间： | 4/8/2013 12:00:00 AM |
A Review of Physical Mechanisms of the Global SSTA Impact on EASM |
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| Chen Lijuan,Yuan Yuan,Yang Mingzhu,Zuo Jinqing and Li Weijing.A Review of Physical Mechanisms of the Global SSTA Impact on EASM[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2013,24(5):521-532. |
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| Authors: | Chen Lijuan Yuan Yuan Yang Mingzhu Zuo Jinqing and Li Weijing |
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| Institution: | Laboratory of Climate Studies, National Climate Center, CMA, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The impact of global sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on the East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) and summer precipitation in China is reviewed from the aspects of physical mechanisms, on the basis of key external forcing signals in short-term climate prediction. Focusing on El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific and the main SSTA modes in Indian and Atlantic Ocean, their inter-annual variability are further reviewed as well as their different impacts on the EASM, especially their relationship with the main summer rainfall belt in China.During different phases of ENSO cycle, ENSO exerts different impacts on the EASM and the summer precipitation in China. In the developing summer of El Ni?o, the EASM tends to be weak and the main summer rainfall belt would shift southward in eastern China. However, in the decaying summer of El Ni?o, the EASM tends to be strong, and the summer precipitation would be below normal in the Yangtze-Huaihe Valley. The situations are approximately reverse for the impact of La Ni a on the EASM and summer precipitation in China, although the impact of La Ni a is not as significant. The influence of ENSO on the EASM and the summer rainfall belt in China is closely correlated with the SSTA in the western Pacific warm pool as well as the resulted convective activities in its northern part. Moreover, the Philippine Sea anticyclone also plays an important role. In recent years, different types of El Ni?o are widely discussed. It is revealed that the Central Pacific (CP) El Ni?o not only has different evolution mechanisms, but also shows different impacts on the global atmospheric circulation as compared with the Eastern Pacific (EP) El Ni?o or classical El Ni?o.Indian Ocean SSTA modes also show significant influences on the EASM and the summer precipitation in China. For example, the basin-wide warming (cooling) mode in the tropical Indian Ocean would cause a late (an early) South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset; in the summer of positive (negative) tropical Indian Ocean dipole phase, more precipitation would occur in South China (North China); during the positive (negative) phase of subtropical southern Indian Ocean dipole, Indian summer monsoon tends to be stronger (weaker), and SCSSM may establish earlier (later). The positive (negative) North Atlantic tri-pole mode would lead to a stronger (weaker) EASM through motivating quasi-barotropic zonal tele-connection wave train across the Eurasian continent.SSTA is the important pre-signal on the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly in China. Because of the predictability of short-term climate prediction, it is still difficult to give high skill prediction for summer rainfall anomaly in China. Some advices and requirements on the physical mechanism research and dynamical model development are proposed in order to improve the prediction of the EASM and summer rainfall in China. |
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| Keywords: | external forcing signal SSTA EASM summer precipitation |
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