| 上海市电力负荷与气象因子关系及精细化预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘红亚,曹亮.上海市电力负荷与气象因子关系及精细化预报[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(4):455-463. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘红亚 曹亮 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.上海中心气象台，上海 200030 |
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| 基金项目： | 资助项目：公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201306010） |
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| 摘 要： | 电力负荷预测是电力调度的重要参考依据，气象条件对电力负荷有重要影响。利用上海市2004—2008年15 min 1次的电力负荷资料和宝山气象站 (区站号58362) 同一时段3 h 1次的气象观测资料，对上海市电力负荷特征进行分析，发现不同温度区间和不同天气类型电力负荷的日变化特征有明显差别。采用逐步回归方法得到各温度区间日平均气象负荷率的预报方程，通过系数订正，得出不同天气类型的逐时负荷预报。2009年试报结果显示:采用预报日前3 d的趋势负荷平均值作为预报当日的趋势负荷值，得到的日平均负荷预测值的误差最小，约为3.6%；非工作日日平均负荷的平均预报相对误差比工作日大；日平均气温超过18 ℃时，工作日日平均负荷的预报误差较小；低于18 ℃时，预报误差明显增大；逐时负荷平均预报误差约为4%。
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| 关 键 词： | 电力负荷 气象因子 精细化预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-03-15 |
The Relationship Between Power Load and Meteorological Factors with Refined Power Load Forecast in Shanghai |
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| Liu Hongya and Cao Liang.The Relationship Between Power Load and Meteorological Factors with Refined Power Load Forecast in Shanghai[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2013,24(4):455-463. |
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| Authors: | Liu Hongya and Cao Liang |
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| Institution: | 1.Shanghai Meteorological Center, Shanghai 2000302.Dispatch Control Center of Shanghai Electric Power Company, Shanghai 200041 |
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| Abstract: | The forecast value of power load is an important reference for the power dispatch, and meteorological conditions have a significant impact on the diurnal and seasonal variation of the power load. Therefore, power load data of every 15 minutes in Shanghai and observations of Baoshan weather station (ID:58362) every 3 hours from 2004 to 2008 are analyzed to study the correlation. It's found that the meteorological power load is most closely related to the temperature. When the daily mean temperature (DMT) is great than 25 ℃, the daily mean meteorological power load rate (DMMPLR) is positive, DMMPLR increases with the increasing of DMT; while DMT is great than 18 ℃ and less than 25 ℃, DMMPLR is negative, DMMPLR increases as the DMT rises too; when DMT is between 6 ℃ and 18 ℃, DMMPLR is negative, DMMPLR decreases with the increasing of DMT; and while DMT is less than 6 ℃, DMMPLR is positive, the magnitude of changes with DMT is slightly. Moreover, the characteristics of power load diurnal variation curve display significant differences in different temperature ranges or under different weather types. Taking the summer season (T≥25 ℃) as an example, the peak of power load rate appears around 1100 BT in rainy-day, appears at about 1400 BT in the day with rainy-afternoon, and appears in the afternoon in the day with sunny-morning; the diurnal variations of hourly mean meteorological power load rate (HMMPLR) are basically the same in the day with rainy-morning or overcast-morning, suggesting that precipitation is not very important, but the sky condition has the main influence.Stepwise regression method is adopted to get the prediction equations of DMMPLR in each temperature range, and then the forecasting values of HMMPLR, under different weather types, calculated by multiplying the statistics coefficients (HMMPLR/DMMPLR) obtained in advance. The forecast test results in 2009 show that, using the 3-day average (before the forecast date) of the trend power load as the trend power load of the forecast date, the mean of absoulute relative error (MARE) of daily mean power load forecast value (DMPLFV) is about 3.6%. The MARE of DMPLFV of non-working days is larger than that of working days. In working days, while DMT is greater than 18 ℃, the MARE of DMPLFV is lower, when DMT is less than 18 ℃, the MARE of DMPLFV significantly increases. The MARE of hourly power load forecast value is about 4%. |
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| Keywords: | power load meteorological factors refined forecast |
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