| 近40年内蒙古候降水变化趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 裴浩,郝璐,韩经纬.近40年内蒙古候降水变化趋势[J].应用气象学报,2012,23(5):543-550. |
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| 作者姓名： | 裴浩 郝璐 韩经纬 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.内蒙古自治区气象局, 呼和浩特 010051 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业（气象）科研专项(GYHY201106025) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于1964—2003年内蒙古44个站日降水量数据，进行了前20年 (1964—1983年)、后20年 (1984—2003年) 候降水变化的聚类分析，得到了最佳聚类数和各聚类的台站组成及其空间分布情况，对前20年和后20年候降水中值的变化情况、候最大降水量出现时间、各聚类的整体特征等进行了分析，并进行了候 (5 d) 和11 d降水中值极图的对比。结果表明:内蒙古不同地区的候降水变化格局存在经向地带性，但站点海拔的差异使这种地带性有所模糊；前、后两个20年候降水的变化格局较为复杂，大多数站点在一些候降水有显著变化，既有降水显著增加的候，也有降水显著减少的候；候最大降水出现的时间和量值有一定变化。
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| 关 键 词： | 候降水 中值 聚类分析 极图 候最大降水量 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-11-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 6/5/2012 12:00:00 AM |
Pentad Precipitation Changes During Recent 40 Years in Inner Mongolia |
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| Pei Hao,Hao Lu and Han Jingwei.Pentad Precipitation Changes During Recent 40 Years in Inner Mongolia[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2012,23(5):543-550. |
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| Authors: | Pei Hao Hao Lu and Han Jingwei |
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| Institution: | 1.Inner Mongolian Meteorological Service, Hohhot 0100512.College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 2100443.Key Laboratory of Agro-meteorological Science of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | In order to study the characteristics of the pentad precipitation median changes in Inner Mongolia, the daily precipitation records of 44 meteorological stations from 1964 to 2003 in this area are analyzed. These 40 years are divided into two 20 year periods, one is from 1964 to 1983, and the other is from 1984 to 2003. From these daily precipitation data, the pentad (5 d) precipitations in each period are calculated and compared at 5 day interval (pentad), and then the clustering analysis is conducted.First, the optimal clustering number of the pentad precipitation change between the first period and the second period is determined by 4 determining indices, classifying the stations into 4 clusters. Then, based on the pentad precipitation differences between two periods, and k means method, clustering analysis is conducted, so the spatial pattern of the clustered pentad precipitation differences are obtained. The lower temporal resolution data may mask some of the more subtle changes. Use of different time resolution data can sometimes lead to different conclusions.The spatial uniformity of 11 day precipitation changes clustering is better than the 5 day result. This is most likely due to the different duration of the temperature and the precipitation process. Therefore, analyzing different climatic factors calls for different time resolution data.By analyzing the polar plots of the pentad precipitations, it is clear that the patterns of the pentad precipitation change are different in different regions and seasons, and the spatial distribution of pentad precipitation change clusters shows that there is a zonation along the longitude. Meanwhile, medians of annual precipitations of the first period and the second period are compared, indicating that the annual precipitation has increased in the most parts of Inner Mongolia. It can be concluded that the seasonal and regional precipitation difference has increased.These changes reflects the correlation of the distribution and trends of precipitation with the intensity and trends of the East Asian monsoon, as well as the complexity of precipitation characteristics in the different climatic zones in Inner Mongolia. |
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| Keywords: | pentad precipitation median clustering analysis polar plot pentad maximum precipitation |
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