| 热带气旋路径趋势数值预报的试验研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王琴,朱永禔.热带气旋路径趋势数值预报的试验研究[J].应用气象学报,1992,3(3):273-280. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王琴 朱永禔 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.上海台风研究所 上海200030
(王琴)，上海台风研究所 上海200030(朱永褆) |
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| 摘 要： | 给出了一个嵌套于欧洲中期天气预报中心全球谱模式中的套网格模式，用于预报热带气旋路径趋势，提出了一种以欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的时距为24小时的预报场为基础的“接力预报”方法；设计了五种不同的“接力预报”方案；并对8507号和8509号两个热带气旋就各种不同预报方案进行了数值预报试验。结果表明，本模式对热带气旋路径趋势具有较强的预报能力，对疑难路径也具有一定的预报能力，为开展热带气旋的路径趋势预报提供了一个新的途径。文中还对影响热带气旋路径趋势的一些主要因子结合各预报结果进行了分析，为模式尽早投入业务提供了一定的依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 路径 数值预报 试验 |
A Study on the Numerical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Track Tendency |
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| Institution: | (Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, 200030) |
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| Abstract: | A one-way nested barotropic model used for predicting tropical cyclone track tendency is developed. The so-called “relay forecasting” time integral method is suggested. That is the grid data supplied by ECMWF through GTS are used not only for determining the boundary value of fine-mesh forecasting domain, but also for updating large scale circulation during integral time. Five different “relay forecasting” schemes are designed and are all tested on tropical cyclones No. 8507 and No. 8509. After comparing and analyzing the results obtained from various forecasting schemes, the main factors which caused the forecast errors are identified. The experimental results show that “relay forecasting” method has great capability for predicting tropical cyclone track tendency. It may forecast not only the normal tracks more accurately than the operational models, but also the anomalous tracks and erratic paths of tropical cyclones. The longer the integral time is, the more obvious the superiority of this method is. This shows that the “ relay forecasting” method has not only suggested a new possible way for predicting tropical cyclone track tendency, but also has made a first encouraging step to develop a mediumrange forecasting method of tropical cyclone tracks. Furthermore, the results from various forecast schemes indicate that they can be used to facilitate the operational forecast. |
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