| 基于遥感数据的夏玉米高温热害监测评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨磊,韩丽娟,宋金玲,李森.基于遥感数据的夏玉米高温热害监测评估[J].应用气象学报,2020,31(6):749-758. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨磊 韩丽娟 宋金玲 李森 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.北京师范大学遥感科学国家重点实验室, 北京 100875 |
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| 摘 要： | 玉米作为一种重要的粮食作物，其产量对于国家粮食安全的影响至关重要。该文结合遥感与地面实测气温数据，基于地表温度与气温具有显著的线性相关关系，构建我国夏玉米主产区高温热害评估模型，并对该模型进行精度检验。结果表明:平原区域日平均气温的模拟结果决定系数在0.8以上，达到0.001显著性水平，均方根误差在1.8℃左右的小范围内波动；平原区域精度略高，山区精度略低（均方根误差为2.4℃）。利用该模型对2008—2018年黄淮海夏玉米主产区高温热害进行评估，发现2017年和2018年夏玉米受高温热害影响最严重，高温热害区主要分布在河北省东南部、河南省大部以及山东省西部，该结果与实际情况相符。
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| 关 键 词： | 夏玉米 高温热害 遥感 模型建立 监测评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-03-17 |
Monitoring and Evaluation of High Temperature and Heat Damage of Summer Maize Based on Remote Sensing Data |
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| Institution: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 1008752.Institute of Remote Sensing Science and Engineering, Department of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 1008753.National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | In the context of global warming, the high temperature heat damage of summer maize occurs frequently in recent years, which seriously affects the yield and quality of corn. As an important food crop, output of summer maize has a crucial impact on national food security. Most studies on the high temperature heat damage of summer maize are based on data of discrete weather stations, which are less representative for large areas; and there are few published works or studies using remote sensing data to monitor and evaluate the high temperature heat damage of summer maize.MOD09A1 land surface reflectance products are used to extract the Huang-Huai-Hai summer maize planting area. Combined with MOD/MYD11A1 land surface temperature products and ground measured temperature data, based on linear correlation between land surface temperature and air temperature, a method of combining multiple stepwise regression and principal component analysis is used to construct a high-temperature damage evaluation model for the Huang-Huai-Hai summer maize production area. Results show that the determination coefficient of daily average air temperature in the plain area is above 0.8, and the determination coefficient of daily maximum temperature is above 0.7, and passing the test of 0.001 level. The accuracy in mountain area is slightly lower, the determination coefficient of daily average temperature is above 0.7, and the determination coefficient of daily maximum temperature is above 0.6, passing the test of 0.001 level. The root mean square error of simulation results of daily average temperature and daily maximum temperature fluctuates within a small range of about 2℃, and the inversion accuracy of daily average temperature is higher than that of daily maximum temperature. Using this model to evaluate the high-temperature heat damage in the main summer maize production area of the Huang-Huai-Hai from 2008 to 2018, it is found that the high-temperature heat damage area increases, and the spatial distribution are similar. Affected areas are mainly in the southern part of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the northern part of Henan Province, and the western part of Shandong Province. The main summer maize production areas in 2017 and 2018 are severely affected by high temperature heat damage. The affected areas are mainly distributed in the southeast of Hebei Province, most of Henan Province and western Shandong Province. This study has an important reference role for the development of a large-scale summer corn high temperature monitoring and evaluation work. |
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