|
|||||
|
|
| 降雨型地质灾害预报方法研究进展 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈悦丽,赵琳娜,王英,王成鑫.降雨型地质灾害预报方法研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2019,30(2):142-153. |
| 作者姓名： | 陈悦丽 赵琳娜 王英 王成鑫 |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081 |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点研究发展计划（2017YFC1502000），国家重点基础研究发展计划（2015CB452806），中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金（2017Y008，2017Y010） |
| 摘 要： | 开展降雨型地质灾害预报是减少灾害损失的有效方法。该文在讨论降雨型地质灾害预报相关概念的基础上，结合国内外已有的研究成果，系统总结了隐式统计模型、显式统计模型和动力模型等降雨型地质灾害预报模型的特点和适用条件。近几年区域降雨型地质灾害的预报技术研究有以下新特点:统计模型简单实用，目前已经由单一考虑降雨特征的第1代隐式统计模型，进一步发展为考虑地质、地貌等静态因子的显示统计模型；动力模型逐渐由基于垂直入渗理论的边坡稳定性模型开始向基于水土耦合机制的复杂预报模型发展；降雨型地质灾害业务预报预警的核心是地质灾害预报模型的本地化运行，我国已经基于统计模型搭建了服务于不同区域的业务预报预警系统。结合多源预报降雨资料，搭建基于水土耦合机制的降雨型地质灾害集合预报预警系统是未来可能的发展方向。 |
| 关 键 词： | 地质灾害 预报方法 水土耦合 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/11/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/1/18 0:00:00 |
Review on Forecast Methods of Rainfall-induced Geo-hazards |
|
| Chen Yueli,Zhao Linn,Wang Ying and Wang Chengxin.Review on Forecast Methods of Rainfall-induced Geo-hazards[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2019,30(2):142-153. | |
| Authors: | Chen Yueli Zhao Linn Wang Ying and Wang Chengxin |
| Institution: | 1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 1000812.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038 |
| Abstract: | The classification of geological hazards is very complicated for there being different methods according to different standards. Factors triggering geological hazards are divided into two categories:Internal and external. Internal factors mainly include geological and geomorphological factors, and external factors include precipitation, earthquake, volcanic eruption and human activities. The majority of the geological hazards are triggered by precipitation, especially heavy rainfall. Geological hazards including the debris flow, landslide and collapse triggered by rainfall are discussed. Geological hazard forecast plays a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective method to mitigate disaster damage. The geo-hazard forecasting mainly refers to the temporal and spatial warning in specific areas. Based on reviewing literatures related to rainfall-induced geological hazard prediction, related concepts are formulated, and previous researches are sorted and summarized. Afterwards, characteristics and application of the rainfall-induced geo-hazard prediction models are summarized, including the implicit statistics model, the explicit statistics model and the dynamic models. At present, the first-generation implicit statistic models considering precipitation characteristics are further developed into a second-generation explicit statistic models which consider rainfall factor, geology and geomorphology factors. Statistic models are widely used in the operational forecasting for their conciseness and convenience. However, the accuracy of the spatial and temporal simulating is limited because models can''t simulate the physical mechanism of geological hazards. Geo-hazard early warning systems based on dynamic model can provide a better forecasting product with higher spatial and temporal resolution. The dynamic model is gradually developed from a slope stability model based on the theory of vertical infiltration to a coupled hydrological-geotechnical model. The geo-hazard forecasting model is the key of the early warning system. Lots of rainfall-induced geo-hazard early warning systems based on the statistic model have been set up in China. Meteorological models are used to forecast the rainfall in order to issue a warning with a given lead time. A complete geological hazards forecasting chain include the rainfall predicting, the disaster model, model results displaying, and the early warning releasing. The research foci of geological hazard forecasting have gradually expanded from the prediction model to the input of multi-source precipitation data, the display and release of early warning. Based on previous literature reviews and analysis, the coupled hydrological-geotechnical framework combined with multi-source forecasting precipitation data as an important direction for future development can be considered a useful geo-hazard risk mitigation measure to employ over widespread areas. |
| Keywords: | geological hazard forecasting methods coupled hydrological-geotechnical framework |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ | |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 | |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》下载免费的PDF全文 | |