| 基于大气环流的稻纵卷叶螟气象预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王纯枝,张蕾,郭安红,李轩,刘维,庄立伟,陆明红,吕厚荃,包云轩.基于大气环流的稻纵卷叶螟气象预测模型[J].应用气象学报,2019,30(5):565-576. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王纯枝 张蕾 郭安红 李轩 刘维 庄立伟 陆明红 吕厚荃 包云轩 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.国家气象中心, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201306053），气象关键技术集成与应用项目（CMAGJ2015Z02），国家重点基础研究发展计划（2013CB430205） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于1980-2016年全国稻纵卷叶螟逐年发生面积、产量损失资料、逐月74项大气环流特征量以及南方15省(区、市)地面气象资料,采用因子膨化处理技术、Pearson遥相关分析法和逐步回归分析法,筛选对中国稻纵卷叶螟发生面积率有显著影响的大气环流因子,构建中国稻纵卷叶螟发生面积率的多时相动态大气环流预测模型,探讨大气环流对中国稻纵卷叶螟发生的可能影响机制。结果表明:46项大气环流因子与稻纵卷叶螟发生关系密切,副热带高压类、极涡类环流因子是中国稻纵卷叶螟发生面积率的主导影响因子。建立的中国稻纵卷叶螟发生面积率年前、年后3-10月的月动态预测模型历史拟合较好,对2015年、2016年1月初及3-10月各月初外延预报两年平均准确率分别达86.6%,90.5%,91.8%,93.4%,93.4%,94.0%,94.0%,94.3%,95.4%。关键环流特征因子、当年气候年型和稻区5-9月气象条件对中国稻纵卷叶螟的发生程度具有较好的指示效应,稻纵卷叶螟发生面积率较大的年份主要出现在干暖年和湿暖年;干冷年型常导致稻纵卷叶螟发生面积率偏小。
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| 关 键 词： | 稻纵卷叶螟 发生面积率 大气环流 预测模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/5/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/7/24 0:00:00 |
Long-term Meteorological Prediction Model on the Occurrence and Development of Rice Leaf Roller Based on Atmospheric Circulation |
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| Wang Chunzhi,Zhang Lei,Guo Anhong,Li Xuan,Liu Wei,Zhuang Liwei,Lu Minghong,Li Houquan,Bao Yunxuan.Long-term Meteorological Prediction Model on the Occurrence and Development of Rice Leaf Roller Based on Atmospheric Circulation[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2019,30(5):565-576. |
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| Authors: | Wang Chunzhi Zhang Lei Guo Anhong Li Xuan Liu Wei Zhuang Liwei Lu Minghong Li Houquan Bao Yunxuan |
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| Institution: | 1.National Meteorological Center, Beijing 1000812.National Agro-Technical Extension and Service Center, Beijing 1001253.Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | To understand the possible influencing mechanism of atmospheric circulation on the occurrence and development of rice leaf roller in China, relationships between atmospheric circulation characteristic indices and ratios of the occurrence area of rice leaf roller in China are fully analyzed from 1980 to 2016. 74 atmospheric circulation characteristic indices and their combinations are analyzed by factor puffing. Results show that 46 indices of these atmospheric circulation characteristic ones have significant influences on the ratio of occurrence area of rice leaf roller, and main influencing periods are from July to September, as well as last July to March. Indices of subtropical high category are most influential, followed by polar vortex category, circulation category, trough category and then others. Among 46 significant atmospheric circulation characteristic factors, 27 subtropical high factors and 10 polar vortex factors, accounting for 59% and 22% of the total, respectively, are the main factors influencing the ratio of the occurrence area of rice leaf roller. 10 key atmospheric circulation characteristic indices that directly influence the ratio of occurrence area of rice leaf roller are determined, and 7 of them have great change at 4 occurrence levels of rice leaf roller as light, partially light, partially severe and severe. 9 prediction models for ratios of the occurrence area of rice leaf roller are established to predict at the beginning of January and March to October. The hindcast of 9 models from 1980 to 2014 are good and accuracies in extending prediction years of 2015-2016 are 86.6%, 90.5%, 91.8%, 93.4%, 93.4%, 94.0%, 94.0%, 94.3% and 95.4%, respectively. Key atmospheric circulation characteristic factors represent climate background for the occurrence area of rice leaf roller very well in China. In the rice-planted area the atmospheric circulation influences the temperature, precipitation, etc., and thus affects the ratio of occurrence area of rice leaf roller. The ratio of the occurrence area of rice leaf roller in dry-warm and wet-warm years is usually larger than that in dry-cold years. |
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| Keywords: | Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenée occurrence area of rice leaf roller atmospheric circulation prediction model |
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