| 陕西苹果花期机理性预报模型的适用性评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 邬定荣,霍治国,王培娟,王景红,姜会飞,柏秦凤,杨建莹.陕西苹果花期机理性预报模型的适用性评价[J].应用气象学报,2019,30(5):555-564. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邬定荣 霍治国 王培娟 王景红 姜会飞 柏秦凤 杨建莹 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研究发展计划（2017YFC1502801，2018YFC1505605），中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金（2019KJ008） |
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| 摘 要： | 以陕西苹果花期为研究对象，针对4个机理性物候模型——顺序模型（SM）、平行模型（PM）、深度休息模型（DRM）和热时模型（TTM），基于各果区代表站的花期数据及同期气象数据订正模型参数，利用内部检验和交叉验证（留一验证）方法，评价模型在模拟花期上的适用性。结果表明:内部检验时各站点的最适模型不同，总体上，SM和TTM均方根误差略低（3.30 d）；交叉验证时模型表现相当，各模型平均的均方根误差为4.52 d，略优于内部检验。使用单站外推和求平均后外推将TTM参数应用至果区内其他站，这两种方法的均方根误差均优于国外同类研究（10.0 d），其中单站外推的均方根误差（5.90 d）又高于求平均后外推（7.21 d）。综合考虑模型的复杂性与模拟精度，推荐使用TTM并分果区模拟陕西苹果花期。
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| 关 键 词： | 苹果花期 机理模型 适用性评价 热时模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/5/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/7/24 0:00:00 |
The Applicability of Mechanism Phenology Models to Simulating Apple Flowering Date in Shaanxi Province |
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| Wu Dingrong,Huo Zhiguo,Wang Peijuan,Wang Jinghong,Jiang Huifei,Bai Qinfeng and Yang Jianying.The Applicability of Mechanism Phenology Models to Simulating Apple Flowering Date in Shaanxi Province[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2019,30(5):555-564. |
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| Authors: | Wu Dingrong Huo Zhiguo Wang Peijuan Wang Jinghong Jiang Huifei Bai Qinfeng and Yang Jianying |
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| Institution: | 1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 1000812.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 2100443.Shaanxi Meteorological Service Observatory for Economical Crop, Xi'an 7100154.College of Resource and Environment Sciences, China Agriculture University, Beijing 100193 |
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| Abstract: | China''s apple growing area and production rank first in the world, and thus apple is one of important economical crops in China. Meteorological disaster occurring in apple critical phenology stage is one of the main disasters impacting yield and quality, especially in the dominant planting provinces such as Shaanxi. Accurate forecasting on flowering date in Shaanxi can provide scientific support for taking applicable defensive management and improving the ability to resist meteorological disasters, and therefore benefit to apple yield and quality. Taking apple flowering stage as an example, the applicability of 4 typical phenology models is evaluated, including Sequential Model (SM), Parallel Model (PM), Deepening Rest Model (DRM), and Thermal Time Model (TTM). There are 4 apple planting divisions in Shaanxi Province. In each division, there are two phenology observation sites. Internal validation and cross validation (Leave One Out Cross Validation) of 4 models are done using sites with longer observations, while shorter record sites are used to evaluate the effect of model extrapolation application. In 4 divisions, 4 sites performing internal validation and cross validation are Xunyi, Luochuan, Liquan and Baishui, respectively, while four sites to conduct extrapolation application are Changwu, Baota, Fengxiang and Tongchuan, respectively. Model performance is assessed according to the root mean square error (RMSE) of modelled flowering date. Internal validation results show that optimal models are different in different sites and generally TTM and SM give similar accuracy (3.30 d). Cross validation also verifies and there is no particularly prominent model. The average RMSE for all four models is 4.52 d. TTM is then extrapolatively applied to other sites with two methods (extrapolation based on values in a single site, and extrapolation based on average values of 4 sites). The accuracy of both methods is higher than that of similar studies abroad (10.0 d), while the accuracy of extrapolation based on values in a single site (5.90 d) is higher than that of extrapolation based on average values of 4 sites (7.21 d). Considering the complexity and simulation accuracy, TTM is recommended to be used to simulate the flowering period in each apple planting division in Shaanxi Province. |
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| Keywords: | apple flowering date mechanical model applicability evaluation thermal time model |
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