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| 基于模糊逻辑的飞机积冰预测指数 | |
| 引用本文： | 齐晨,金晨曦,郭文利,甘璐,赵德龙,卢姁,武帅,李黑平.基于模糊逻辑的飞机积冰预测指数[J].应用气象学报,2019,30(5):619-628. |
| 作者姓名： | 齐晨 金晨曦 郭文利 甘璐 赵德龙 卢姁 武帅 李黑平 |
| 作者单位： | 1.北京市气象服务中心, 北京 100089 |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点研究发展计划"科技冬奥"重点专项项目第5课题（课题编号2018YFF0300105），北京市科技计划项目（课题编号D17-1100000717002） |
| 摘 要： | 使用北京人工影响天气办公室提供的2014-2017年京津冀地区飞行记录积冰个例样本与机载观测数据，2016年全国空中报告积冰、非积冰个例样本和欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）第5代全球气候大气再分析数据（ERA5），基于模糊逻辑隶属度函数，定义了以气温和相对湿度为判别基础并考虑垂直速度和云量影响的积冰指数Ip（icing potential index），用于判断飞机在空中发生积冰事件的可能性。检验结果表明:该指数对积冰事件的判别准确率为80.2%，与目前国内常用的经典积冰指数（Ic）相比，其判别准确率有明显提升，且漏报率和虚警率均显著降低（分别为9.4%和10.4%），结合数值预报产品可对飞机在空中特定位置发生积冰事件的可能性进行预测。 |
| 关 键 词： | 飞机积冰 积冰指数 积冰可能性预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/4/3 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/6/11 0:00:00 |
Icing Potential Index of Aircraft Icing Based on Fuzzy Logic |
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| Qi Chen,Jin Chenxi,Guo Wenli,Gan Lu,Zhao Delong,Lu Xu,Wu Shuai and Li Heiping.Icing Potential Index of Aircraft Icing Based on Fuzzy Logic[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2019,30(5):619-628. | |
| Authors: | Qi Chen Jin Chenxi Guo Wenli Gan Lu Zhao Delong Lu Xu Wu Shuai and Li Heiping |
| Institution: | 1.Beijing Weather Information Service, Beijing 1000892.Beijing Weather Modification Office, Beijing 1000893.Meteorological Department of 32021 PLA Troop, Beijing 1000944.Meteorological Station of 95820 PLA Troop, Beijing 102207 |
| Abstract: | Aircraft icing, a cumulative hazard, is one of the major weather hazards affecting aviation. It reduces aircraft efficiency by increasing weight, reducing lift, decreasing thrust, and increasing drag. Icing also seriously impairs aircraft engine performance and causes false indication on flight instruments, loss of radio communications and failures of control panel, brakes, and landing gear. Therefore, the prediction of aircraft icing is one of the key research focuses. In order to establish an aircraft icing potential index with more reasonable threshold and easy to adopt, 372 aircraft icing cases and corresponding observation data from 2014 to 2017 provided by Beijing Weather Modification Office are analyzed based on fuzzy logical principles. The membership function of temperature and relative humidity derived from those data analysis is used to calculate the initial possibility of icing. On this basis, the membership function representing the influence of vertical velocity and cloudiness on the initial possibility of icing is determined using the national pilot reports (PIREPs) in 2016 and corresponding ERA5 reanalysis data to screen different forms of membership functions. Based on membership functions of temperature, relative humidity, vertical velocity and cloudiness, the icing potential index (Ip) can be calculated by using output from numerical weather prediction model. According to ERA5 reanalysis data, 61 icing cases and 45 non-icing cases are used to test the effectiveness of Ip. Results show that the accuracy, missing alarm rate and false alarm rate of Ip are 80.2%, 9.4% and 10.4%. Compared with the commonly used icing index (Ic), the accuracy of Ip is better, the missing alarm and false alarm reduce significantly. However, it should be noted that the difference between aircraft type and flight speed of different aircraft icing cases in this study is not discussed, and it is assumed that effects of vertical velocity and cloud cover on the initial possibility of icing are independent, which need further study. In summary, the established icing potential index (Ip) based on fuzzy logical principles is efficient and feasible, and provides information for pilots to avoid high-risk areas of icing in the air. Combining with the regional numerical weather prediction model, it can output the possibility of icing in certain areas under certain meteorological conditions and provide reference for pilots to avoid high-risk areas of icing in the air. |
| Keywords: | aircraft icing icing index prediction of icing possibility |
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