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基于气候适宜度的玉米产量动态预报方法
引用本文:魏瑞江,宋迎波,王鑫.基于气候适宜度的玉米产量动态预报方法[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(5):622-627.
作者姓名:魏瑞江  宋迎波  王鑫
作者单位:1.河北省气象科学研究所, 石家庄 050021
基金项目:中国气象局"作物产量动态预报综合技术"项目资助 
摘    要:夏玉米是河北省主要粮食作物之一, 其生长发育及产量形成受气象条件影响很大, 开展玉米产量动态预报对河北省农业生产和粮食安全具有重要意义。该文结合夏玉米生理特性, 建立了夏玉米气候适宜度模型, 利用此模型借助于SPSS统计软件, 计算了1972—2005年河北省8个市夏玉米生育期内逐旬气候适宜度, 以此为基础, 建立了河北省8个市夏玉米不同时段产量预报模型。结果表明:夏玉米气候适宜度与产量相关显著; 1972—2005年历史预报检验和2006—2007年预报试验平均准确率分别为88.8%和96.8%, 能够满足业务服务需要。

关 键 词:气候适宜度    夏玉米产量    动态预报
收稿时间:2008-07-23

Method for Dynamic Forecast of Corn Yield Based on Climatic Suitability
Wei Ruijiang,Song Yingbo,Wang Xin.Method for Dynamic Forecast of Corn Yield Based on Climatic Suitability[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2009,20(5):622-627.
Authors:Wei Ruijiang  Song Yingbo  Wang Xin
Institution:1.Hebei Provincial Institute of Meteorology, Shijiazhuang 0500212.Hebei Provincial Meteorological and Eco-environmental Key Laboratory, Shijiazhuang 0500213.National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081
Abstract:Summer corn is one of the major grain crops in Hebei Province. Its growing development and yield formation are influenced by weather conditions during the growing and maturity seasons. So it is of great significance to forecast the yield dynamically for agricultural production and food security of Hebei Province. Operational weather forecast for crop yield has a history over 20 years in China, laying the foundation for the application of yield forecast. However, many of the crop yield forecasting methods are carried out at fixed time. Dynamical forecast that tracks the whole growth period of crops and considers the three typical climatic factors (sunshine, temperature and precipitation), is rarely carried out. There are some attempts that establish comprehensive climate models based on related analysis between crops and weather conditions considering the whole growth period of crops affected by the three factors. But it hasn't been done much to use the climate suitability for yield forecast. Meteorological data from the Hebei Meteorological Bureau are adopted, including temperature, precipitation and sunlight hours per ten-day period from 1972 to 2005 in the eight representative summer corn producing cities (Tangshan, Langfang, Baod-ing, Shijiazhuang, Cangzhou, Hengshui, Xingtai and Handan). The annual corn yield per unit data from the Hebei Province Statistics Bureau are used for research. Based on the physiological characteristics of summer corn, temperature suitability model, precipitation suitability model, sunshine suitability model and general climatic suitability model are established. Then the climatic suitability of every ten days during the corn growing period over the eight cities is calculated for the years of 1972 - 2005. Correlation analysis results between climatic suitability and the corresponding yield fluctuation quantity indicate that the relationship between them is remarkable, and the climatic suitability model of summer corn can reflect the climate and its dynamic changes in Hebei Province objectively. Taking the climatic suitability of every ten days during the growing period as the basis, the dynamical forecasting models of eight regions from 1972 to 2005 in Hebei Province have been established at different stages using the statistical analysis software SPSS. The average accuracy of the forecasting model by yield fitting validation is 88. 8% for historical forecasting during 1972-2005 and 96. 8% for a rolling yield forecasting during 2006-2007 respectively, proving the model applicable to operational service. The model should be further optimized in future work owing to imperfection in the precipitation suitability model, and the lagged effect of pre-precipitation should be brought into consideration.
Keywords:climatic suitability  summer corn yield  dynamic forecast
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