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多普勒雷达资料在暴雨临近预报中的应用
引用本文:王改利,刘黎平,阮征.多普勒雷达资料在暴雨临近预报中的应用[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(3):388-395.
作者姓名:王改利  刘黎平  阮征
作者单位:1.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京 100081
基金项目:国家自然科学基金;科研院所社会公益研究专项国家科技基础条件平台工作重点项目
摘    要:强暴雨、台风暴雨等灾害性暴雨天气是造成洪涝灾害最主要的降水天气系统。以广州雷达和梅州雷达的拼图资料以及温州单站雷达资料为基础, 讨论了TREC方法中时间步长、网格大小及雨强阈值等参数变化对跟踪结果的影响, 并对TREC矢量场进行了平滑处理, 这在一定程度上减少了TREC矢量场中由于地物回波和回波梯度变化造成的一些明显错误的矢量, 得到较为连续的矢量场, 并将得到的矢量场用于暴雨的临近预报。个例分析及预报结果的验证表明:通过选择合适的参数, 雨强CAPPI、反射率因子CAPPI和CR 3种资料得到的TREC矢量场一致性好, 能够反映我国的强暴雨、台风暴雨等灾害性暴雨的移动方向。CR资料的外推预报结果稍差于其他两者, 3种资料预报的准确性都随着预报时间的递增而降低, 对连续时刻的TREC矢量进行拟合, 有助于提高预报准确率。TREC方法对于结构比较复杂、不易识别的台风暴雨等灾害性暴雨天气, 在预警方面具有一定应用价值。

关 键 词:TREC    临近预报    外推预报
收稿时间:2006-05-25
修稿时间:2006-05-252007-01-11

Application of Doppler Radar Data to Nowcasting of Heavy Rainfall
Wang Gaili,Liu Liping,Ruan Zheng.Application of Doppler Radar Data to Nowcasting of Heavy Rainfall[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2007,18(3):388-395.
Authors:Wang Gaili  Liu Liping  Ruan Zheng
Institution:1.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 1000812.Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
Abstract:evere rainstorm,typhoon heavy rain and so on are the main precipitation system causing disastrous flood.In order to reduce the occurrence of meteorological disasters,timely forecasting and warning of severe weather are needed.The development on rainstorm nowcasting with tracking radar echoes by correlation(TREC) is described,which is also applied in Hong Kong rainstorm nowcasting system SWIRLS(Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized System) and NCAR's ANC(Auto-NowCast).TREC technique is applied to two successive CAPPI reflectivity fields.The first field is divided into a number of equally sized two-dimensional arrays of pixels.The arrays of reflectivity values are then cross-correlated with the arrays in the second field.The correlation coefficient R is calculated repeatedly for all possible arrays found at the second field to determine which array results in the highest correlation,and the center of this second array is the end point of TREC vector.Based on the Doppler radar data from the mosaic by Guangzhou and Meizhou radar,Wenzhou single radar,effects on the tracking result are discussed which are produced by the parameters variation including interval between two CAPPI reflectivity fields,the size of the boxes,the threshold of rain intensity etc.In order to correct noisy TREC vectors and improve the consistency of the resulting vector field,a two-step procedure is used: The purpose of the first step is to minimize the influence of apparently incorrect TREC vectors.Vectors with zero velocity(often caused by ground cluster) are replaced by vectors that represent the average of the neighboring vectors. Objective analysis is used in the second step to produce a continuous gridded vector field,which is used in rainstorm nowcasting.The nowcasting result is validated by making use of observational data of radar.The results show that the TREC vectors calculated from rain intensity CAPPI,reflectivity CAPPI and CR are consistent with each other,and they are capable of indicating the directory of rainstorm displacement.The result of extrapolation forecast from CR is slightly below the two others,and forecast accuracy of the three kinds of data are decreasing with forecast lead time,which can be improved by fitting the successive five TREC vectors.Though TREC technique segments radar imagery lacks of clear physical meaning,it is still valuable for forecasting of storm rainfall and typhoon rainstorm with complex structure and identified difficultly.Both single radar data and mosaic data are used in the research,which is helpful for forecasting severe weather utilizing Doppler weather radar observation net.
Keywords:TREC
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