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农业气象灾害监测预测技术研究进展
引用本文:郭建平.农业气象灾害监测预测技术研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(5):620-630.
作者姓名:郭建平
作者单位:1.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(重大专项)(GYHY201506001 2,GYHY201506001 3)
摘    要:农业气象灾害的监测预测是灾害评估和防控的基础和前提, 因此,农业气象灾害的监测预测研究长期以来一直是农业气象研究工作的重点领域。该文系统回顾了我国农业气象灾害的指标、监测技术和预测预警技术等方面的相关进展和成果,提出当前存在的主要问题:农业气象灾害的基础性研究仍然十分薄弱, 农业气象灾害指标对致灾因子的概括性尚不足, 农业气象灾害监测的精细化程度有待进一步提高, 临近预警技术缺乏, 气候变化背景下农业气象灾害的新规律揭示不够。该文同时指出未来应加强农业气象灾害综合指标的研究, 强化农业气象灾害的预测预报研究, 构建农业气象灾害实时预警技术体系, 构建农业气象灾害立体、动态监测体系, 关注气候变化背景下农业气象灾害风险变化评估研究, 加强气象或气候预测信息在农业气象灾害预测中的应用技术研究。

关 键 词:农业气象灾害    监测预测    研究进展
收稿时间:2016-05-11
修稿时间:7/4/2016 12:00:00 AM

Research Progress on Agricultural Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Forecasting
Guo Jianping.Research Progress on Agricultural Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Forecasting[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2016,27(5):620-630.
Authors:Guo Jianping
Institution:1.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 1000812.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
Abstract:Agricultural meteorological disaster is one of the main natural disasters affecting crop yield stability in the world. Impacted by monsoon climate, China is one of the most seriously affected countries by agricultural meteorological disaster in the world. China's great disaster variety, high strength, high frequency, wide influence range, and severe yield losses have great impacts on sustainable development of agricultural production. Agricultural meteorological disaster monitoring and forecasting is the basis and premise of disaster assessment and prevention. Accurate monitoring and timely forecast of disasters is possible for effective prevention of agricultural meteorological disasters, and makes yield losses decrease to a minimum extent. Therefore, corresponding research has long been a key fields of agrometeorological research.Based on a systematic review on the research progress and achievements of agricultural meteorological disaster monitoring and prediction technology, some problems are found to be quite vital: The fundamental research of agricultural meteorological disaster is still insufficient, commonly-used agricultural meteorological disaster index doesn't fully consider hazard-formative factors, agricultural meteorological disaster monitoring isn't fine enough, early warning technology is short, and the new pattern of agricultural disaster under climate change are not revealed enough. Therefore, some efforts should be strengthened in the future, i.e., a more comprehensive disaster index, advanced forecasting technology, real-time warning system, three-dimensional and dynamic monitoring system, the evaluation of disaster risk under climate change, and the application technology of meteorological and climate forecast information in the prediction of agricultural meteorological disasters.
Keywords:agricultural meteorological disaster  monitoring and forecasting  research progress
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