| 鹰厦铁路降水诱发地质灾害概率预报模型及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 周雨,刘志萍,张国平.鹰厦铁路降水诱发地质灾害概率预报模型及应用[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(6):743-749. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周雨 刘志萍 张国平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.江西省气象服务中心，南昌 330046 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（40971016） |
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| 摘 要： | 降水是铁路地质灾害的重要触发因子，由于降水引发的地质灾害对铁路运输安全造成重大的经济损失。鹰厦铁路由于其特殊的地形及气候条件，使该线成为全国地质灾害发生较频繁、较严重的铁路之一。利用南昌铁路局2007—2012年辖区内的地质灾害资料，统计鹰厦铁路地质灾害的时空分布特征。根据不同降水类型造成的铁路地质灾害特点不同，进一步研究铁路地质灾害与降水的关系。引入10 min最大降水量、当日最大小时降水量、连续降水量和前20 d累积降水量等降水量因子，运用因子相关性分析和逻辑回归方法筛选对灾害发生贡献率较大的降水量因子，分区段建立鹰厦铁路地质灾害概率预报模型。运用该模型对2013年5月20—22日一次大暴雨过程诱发的地质灾害进行预报，预报准确率达86%，模型应用效果较理想，可为铁路安全气象服务工作提供技术支持。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路地质灾害 降水 逻辑回归 概率预报模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 3/5/2015 12:00:00 AM |
Probability Forecasting Model of Geological Disaster Along the Yingxia Railway Induced by Precipitation and Its Application |
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| Zhou Yu,Liu Zhiping and Zhang Guoping.Probability Forecasting Model of Geological Disaster Along the Yingxia Railway Induced by Precipitation and Its Application[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2015,26(6):743-749. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Yu Liu Zhiping and Zhang Guoping |
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| Institution: | 1.Jiangxi Provincial Weather Service Center, Nanchang 3300462.Public Weather Service Center, CMA, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Precipitation is an important triggering factor of railway geological disasters. Every year significant economic losses are caused by railway geological disasters because of rainfall. To solve the problem of geological disaster forecasting in operational weather forecast service, a probability forecasting model is needed. Due to its special terrain and weather conditions, Yingxia Railway suffers from geological disasters more frequently and more severely. The disaster data from 2007 to 2012, as well as the temporal and spatial distribution features along Yingxia Railway are analyzed. Geological disasters happen most frequently at Qingzhou-Zhuozhai segment, especially from April to August.4 types of precipitation are the major trigger for the railway geological disasters: Local heavy precipitation, precipitation caused by typhoon, persistent precipitation and convectional weather. Geological disasters caused by typhoon are all relatively concentrated in Meishuikeng-Longhai-Xiamen segment. Persistent rainfall makes railway roadbed soil water saturation imbalance and thus slough or collapse may happen. Strong convective weather caused by rain could lead the soil flow to the air and thus causes the collapse of the shoulder. According to characteristics of different railway geological disasters caused by different types of precipitation, further study of the relationship between railway geological disasters and precipitation are carried out.10 min maximum precipitation, maximum hourly rainfall of a day, continuous rainfall and the cumulated rainfall of past 20 days are introduced as forecasting factors. Based on factor correlation analysis and logistic regression methods, the probabilistic forecasting models are established for each railway segment along Yingxia Railway. Although there are differences in precipitation hazard factor of each segment of geological disasters, the intraday precipitation is influencing for all segments. The precipitation one or two days before geological disasters plays an important role in probabilistic forecasting model. In order to verify the accuracy of this model, a test is applied on a heavy rainstorm happened from 20 May to 22 May in 2013 to forecast geological disasters of Yingxia Railway. The outcome indicates that the forecasting accuracy rates have reached above 80%. Effects of the probabilistic forecasting models are tested well. In the future, it can be used to conduct geological disaster forecasts to provide some technical support for railway safety meteorological services. |
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| Keywords: | geological disasters of railway rainfall logistic regression probabilistic prediction model |
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