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气候变化对我国小麦地理分布的潜在影响
引用本文:戴晓苏.气候变化对我国小麦地理分布的潜在影响[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(1):19-25.
作者姓名:戴晓苏
作者单位:1.国家气候中心
摘    要:根据GCM模拟结果,分析了CO2增加对我国小麦生产地理分布的潜在影响。结果表明:在加倍CO2气候下,我国小麦生产区将进一步向北和向西扩展,小麦栽培特点和品种类型也有较大变化。气候增暖可能对东北地区产生有利影响,但在中部和南部则可能产生高温应力。小麦生长期间平均温度的升高,特别是收获前的高温可能会增加对更早熟、更耐热品种的需求。

关 键 词:气候变化    二氧化碳    气候影响    农作物地理分布

Potential Effects of Climatic Variation on Geographical Distribution of Wheat in China
Dai Xiaosu.Potential Effects of Climatic Variation on Geographical Distribution of Wheat in China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1997,8(1):19-25.
Authors:Dai Xiaosu
Institution:1.(National Climate Center, Beijing 100081)
Abstract:The potential CO 2 induced impacts on the geographical shifts of wheat growth zones in China were analyzed based on GCM outputs. It is shown that the wheat growth regions may move northward and westward under the condition of a doubled CO 2 climate. The wheat cultivation features and variety types may also assume significant changes. Climatic warming would have a positive influence in Northeast China, but high temperature stress may be produced in some regions of central and southern China. Higher mean air temperatures during wheat growth, particularly during the reproductive stages, may increase the need for earlier maturing and more heat tolerant cultivars.
Keywords:Climate variation  Carbon dioxide  Climate impact  Crop geographical distribution    
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