| 气候与上海蔬菜均衡供应的优化规划 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨星卫,薛正平.气候与上海蔬菜均衡供应的优化规划[J].应用气象学报,1992,3(1):76-83. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨星卫 薛正平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.上海市气象科学研究所
(杨星卫)，上海市气象科学研究所(薛正平) |
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| 摘 要： | 在露地的蔬菜生产中，气候是引起蔬菜上市量波动的主要因子。本文以按市场需求安排生产为基础，首次提出按气候变动调整蔬菜生产计划，建立了以市场供需差额最小、国家对蔬菜经营的财政亏损最小、土地占用面积较少为目标的多目标规划模型。模型考虑了气候作为随机因素对各品种蔬菜上市状况的定量影响，进一步提高了决策方案的预见性和可靠性。模型对上海蔬菜生产的模拟分析结果表明:通过优化规划可使春、秋、冬三个季节的市场供需差额分别缩小25%、23%、10%，缩小计划品种的占地面积分别为3.04、1.92、0.77万亩，减少国家亏损324万元。
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| 关 键 词： | 蔬菜 均衡供应 气候 优化 规划 |
Optimization of the City Vegetable Supply Based on Climate |
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| Institution: | (Shanghai Meteorological Research Institute) |
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| Abstract: | To vegetable production in field, climate is the major factor causing fluctuations of vegetable supply. A programming model with multi-objectives of balanced supply, maximum economic profit and minimum cultivated land areas based on demand of the market and the yearly climate variation is established. The quantitative influence of the climate as a random factor on the supply is considered. This has further enhanced the predictability and reliability of the programming model. The optimization of vegetable production in Shanghai obtained from simulation could reduce the imbalance between the demand and supply by 12%, cut 3.24 million yuan of government deficit and save 1264×104m2 of cultivated land |
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