| 北京市电网雷害分布规律及风险评估 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 甘 璐,李 津,邓长菊,张德山,扈海波,叶 宽.北京市电网雷害分布规律及风险评估[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(4):499-504. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 甘 璐 李 津 邓长菊 张德山 扈海波 叶 宽 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.北京市专业气象台，北京 100089 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306043)，北京市气象局科技研发专项(2013BMBKYZX13)，北京市气象局“精细化预报服务和业务平台创新团队”项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 根据1996—2009年北京市逐日电网灾害资料分析了北京市电网雷害的发生规律, 结果显示:北京市电网雷害存在季节变化和日变化特征。结合同期气象观测站的雷暴日资料、北京市各区县的经济和人口密度特征提出了电网雷害概率、电网雷害频度、电网雷害密度、经济易损模数和生命易损模数作为北京市电网雷害风险评估指标。在此基础上，采用4级分区法对上述电网雷害易损性评估指标进行分级，并将北京市各区县按照5个电网雷害评估指标的所属等级值累加，得到电网雷害综合易损风险评估的评估系数。结果表明:北京地区电网雷害高风险区集中在北京城区中心附近，山区和山前迎风坡地带尽管电网雷害频次较高，但电网雷害风险却相对较低。
|
| 关 键 词： | 电网雷害 风险评估 易损度 防雷减灾 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-09-25 |
Risk Assessment and Temporal-spatial Distribution of Power Grid Lighting Disasters in Beijing |
| |
| Gan Lu,Li Jin,Deng Changju,Zhang Deshan,Hu Haibo and Ye Kuan.Risk Assessment and Temporal-spatial Distribution of Power Grid Lighting Disasters in Beijing[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2014,25(4):499-504. |
| |
| Authors: | Gan Lu Li Jin Deng Changju Zhang Deshan Hu Haibo and Ye Kuan |
| |
| Institution: | 1.Beijing Professional Meteorological Observatery, Beijing 1000892.Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 1000893.Beijing Research of Electric Power Test Institute, Beijing 100075 |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the daily power grid disaster data during 1996-2009 in Beijing, power grid disasters caused by the thunder and lighting (hereafter referred as power grid lighting disasters) are investigated. Results show that power grid lighting disasters present seasonal and daily variations in Beijing. Seasonal variation characteristic of power grid lighting disasters is mainly centralized from June to September, account for 88.4%. The highest appear in August, it can account for 32.9%. And daily variation characteristics analysis shows that from 1500 BT to 2100 BT is the high-incidence period. The analysis on spatial distribution of power grid lighting disasters indicates that there are more disasters in the north than those in the south. In terms of the same period of the daily thunderstorm data, economic and population characteristics, five indices are selected to evaluate the risk of power grid lighting disasters in Beijing, such as power grid lighting disaster probability, power grid lighting disaster frequency, power grid lighting disaster density, economic vulnerability module and life vulnerability module, respectively. And the different power grid lighting disaster evaluation indices are investigated. Four-grade classification methods are used to classify the evaluation indices in order to assess the risk of the power grid lighting disasters in Beijing. Firstly, the five indices are classified into four degrees with a given value as follow: The highest and the lowest degrees are 1.0 and 0.2, while the intermediate degrees are 0.8 and 0.5. Secondly, the comprehensive vulnerability evaluation index of power grid lighting disasters is obtained by adding the degree values of five indices. Then the comprehensive vulnerability evaluation index is also graded as four degrees, which are defined as the maximal damageable area, the high-damageable area, the medium damageable area and the lower damageable area. Finally, regional vulnerability zoning of the power grid lighting disasters are obtained by the average value of the power grid lighting disaster vulnerability evaluation indices. From the result of risk zoning, it can be concluded that the relatively higher power grid lighting disaster risk zones mainly locate in urban area of Beijing, while risks of mountain areas and their piedmont areas are relatively lower. Results of power grid lighting disaster vulnerability evaluation might be provided for the power grid lighting protection and disaster reduction proposal in Beijing. |
| |
| Keywords: | power grid lighting disaster risk assessment vulnerability degree lighting protection and disaster reduction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
