| 中国农业洪涝灾害研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 霍治国,范雨娴,杨建莹,尚莹.中国农业洪涝灾害研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2017,28(6):641-653. |
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| 作者姓名： | 霍治国 范雨娴 杨建莹 尚莹 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | “十二五”国家科技支撑计划（2012BAD20B02） |
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| 摘 要： | 农业洪涝灾害是国内外灾害研究的重要分支领域。该文采用分类归纳总结已有研究成果并与观测事实相佐证的方法，从农业洪涝相关概念出发，系统阐述了中国农业洪涝灾害的研究进展，评述了气候变暖对中国农业洪涝灾害的影响。基于影响作物及发生时段，中国农业洪涝灾害可分为影响越冬作物的春涝、影响夏播夏收和夏季作物生长的夏涝及影响秋播秋收作物的秋涝。农业洪涝灾害的形成及强度，是天气气候、作物抗涝性、地形地貌、土壤结构及人类活动等多种因素综合作用的结果；气候变暖背景下，中国农业洪涝成灾率呈南方增强北部减缓的趋势，总体呈上升趋势；一方面与极端降水事件的变化有直接关系，另一方面受作物气候适宜性变化等的间接影响。农业洪涝灾害的致灾机理包括物理性破坏、生理性损伤及生态性危害。其影响包括对农业生产环境、作物生态生理和生长发育的影响及诱发病虫害等。气候变化背景下的农业洪涝综合性指标、基于灾变过程的综合风险评估及气候变暖对不同作物洪涝灾害的影响事实将是未来重点研究方向。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业洪涝灾害 作物 气候变化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/8/11 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/10/9 0:00:00 |
Review on Agricultural Flood Disaster in China |
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| Huo Zhiguo,Fan Yuxian,Yang Jianying and Shang Ying.Review on Agricultural Flood Disaster in China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2017,28(6):641-653. |
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| Authors: | Huo Zhiguo Fan Yuxian Yang Jianying and Shang Ying |
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| Institution: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 1000812.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | Agricultural flood disaster is generally accepted as an important branch of disaster science. Based on reviewing literatures related to agricultural flood, related concepts are formulated and previous research and existing facts are sorted and summarized. Afterwards, directions for future research are discussed integrating impacts of climate warming.According to affected crops and occurrence times, agricultural flood disaster in China can be divided into spring waterlogging, summer waterlogging and grown or harvested in the summer and autumn waterlogging, which have impacts on the overwintering crop, sowing crop and autumn harvest, respectively. The formation of agricultural flood and its intensity are induced by comprehensive effects of weather, crop flooding tolerance, topography, soil structure and human activities. In the context of climate warming, an increasing tendency is detected in the hazard rate and stricken area of China''s agricultural flood, however, the regional disparity is significant. Agricultural flood disaster decreases in north China, while it increases in the south part. Two fundamental aspects must be linked to explain the spatiotemporal characteristic of agricultural flood. The first one is the disaster weather itself, i.e., the frequency and intensity change of extreme precipitation. The second one is the characteristic of the crop affected, such as crop growth and development speed, the crop boundary, crop strains, cropping system and planting area, which indirectly influence the formation and development of agricultural flood disaster. The occurrence mechanism of flood on crop yield are the comprehensive result of many processes, including the physical damage caused by the flood struck, physiological damage of watered out and ecological hazard because of environment change. Field survey, modeling experiment and numerical simulation are currently the dominant tools available to investigate agricultural flood disaster. Agricultural flood level indexes such as the morphology index, waterlogging degree index, meteorological index and agriculturalmeteorological index are used to systematize effects of flood on agriculture. Impacts of agricultural flood is multidisciplinary, including affecting the agricultural production environment, affecting the ecophysiological processes of crop, crop growth and development and inducing diseases and pests. It suggests that three broad areas be addressed to improve the simulating ability, and attentions should be paid to future impacts of flood on crop yields. First, multidisciplinary agricultural flood index is required under the background of climate change. Second, a comprehensive risk assessment of the disaster needs to be conducted considering knowledge of the disaster process. Finally and the most importantly, data representative of actual disaster is needed to evaluate the influence of climate warming on the agricultural flood. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural flood disaster crop climate change |
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