| 自忆预报模式中记忆特性的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 封国林,曹鸿兴.自忆预报模式中记忆特性的探讨[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(2):219-224. |
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| 作者姓名： | 封国林 曹鸿兴 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.扬州大学基础学院(封国林)，中国气象科学研究院(曹鸿兴) |
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| 摘 要： | 运用有限振幅斜压波的截谱方程对自忆模式中的的记忆性进行了理论探讨。推导了相应的自忆性方程，在给定记忆函数呈线性和指数衰减型时求出了它的解析解，并讨论了这些解的物理意义和预报含意；证明了零解自忆性方程与记忆函数形式无关。通过计算遗忘因子，对动力可预报性和回溯阶等问题进行了讨论，并指出可将其统一纳入大气记忆理论的框架中。
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| 关 键 词： | 记忆性 可预报性 多时刻模式 |
A Study on Memory Feature of Self-memorial Prediction Model |
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| Feng Guolin.A Study on Memory Feature of Self-memorial Prediction Model[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1998,9(2):219-224. |
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| Authors: | Feng Guolin |
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| Institution: | 1.1) (College of Fundamental Courses, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009); 2) (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081) |
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| Abstract: | Theoretical investigation into memorization in a self memorial model, which is formulated with a truncation equation of finite amplitude baroclinic wave, is conducted. A corresponding self memorization equation is derived. An analytical solution of the equation is obtained under conditions of giving memory function as both linear and decay exponential types, meanwhile, the physical meaning and prediction implication of the solution are discussed. It is proved that the zero order self memorization equation is irrelevant to a memory function formulation. By calculating a forget factor, some issues on dynamical predictability and retrospective order etc are studied too, and it is pointed out that these issues can be united to a framework of atmospheric memory theory. |
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| Keywords: | Memorization Predictability Multi time model |
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