| 湖南省油菜春季涝渍过程灾变判别指标 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 范雨娴,霍治国,杨宏毅,尚莹.湖南省油菜春季涝渍过程灾变判别指标[J].应用气象学报,2018,29(2):141-153. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 范雨娴 霍治国 杨宏毅 尚莹 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081 |
| |
| 基金项目： | “十二五”国家科技支撑计划（2012BAD20B02） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 以湖南省油菜为研究对象，综合洪涝与连阴雨的致灾因子，利用历史灾情数据反演涝渍过程样本，构建临灾、受灾状态样本，采用均值t检验方法，定量分析不同降水累积衰减系数w情况下，降水因子差异的显著性，构建有效累积降水量PE。基于Fisher判别准则，计算涝渍灾害临灾与受灾的临界线，构建逐日动态的油菜春季涝渍过程灾变判别指标y，并进行涝渍过程样本反演及独立样本验证。分析春季涝渍受灾频率与相对气象产量的关系，构建灾害影响评价模型。结果表明:当w=0.899时，受灾与临灾样本PE的差异最显著。灾变判别指标y可逐日动态监测涝渍灾变过程及灾害后续影响，为动态监测区域油菜涝渍过程提供了数据支撑；指标指示的灾变范围与实际受灾情况基本一致，为区域防灾减灾提供了科学参考。开花期及结荚期湖南油菜涝渍受灾频率较高，成熟期较低。湖南省油菜春季涝渍灾害影响指数呈东南高西北低，长沙东部、株洲中部及北部、湘潭、永州及郴州中部油菜产量受涝渍灾害影响最重。
|
| 关 键 词： | 湖南省 油菜 农业涝渍灾害 判别指标 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/12/4 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/1/12 0:00:00 |
Catastrophe Distinction Index of Oilseed Rape Vernal Waterlogging in Hunan |
| |
| Fan Yuxian,Huo Zhiguo,Yang Hongyi and Shang Ying.Catastrophe Distinction Index of Oilseed Rape Vernal Waterlogging in Hunan[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2018,29(2):141-153. |
| |
| Authors: | Fan Yuxian Huo Zhiguo Yang Hongyi and Shang Ying |
| |
| Institution: | 1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 1000812.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 2100443.China Continent Property & Casualty Insurance Company LTD Tianjin Branch, Tianjing 300042 |
| |
| Abstract: | Focusing on the oilseed rape waterlogging in Hunan, several waterlogging process samples are picked out from historical disaster information to build the impending hazard sample set and affected sample set. As disaster-causing factors in different status have significant difference, t-test is used to quantify the significance of precipitation factor difference in different attenuation coefficients and create effective accumulation preparation (PE). According to PE and continuous cloudy days (D), the critical line is derived from Fisher principle to build oilseed rape vernal waterlogging catastrophe distinction index which can distinguish the affected status day by day. The waterlogging catastrophe index is verified by inverting waterlogging process samples and calculating the value of independent samples. By calculating the affected frequency of waterlogging in each site, and the waterlogging catastrophe index, the relationship between the frequency of waterlogging damage and the relative meteorological yields is studied, and the waterlogging impact evaluation model is constructed. Results show that current precipitation and antecedent precipitation have significant effects on the formation of the waterlogging disaster in Hunan. When the influence attenuation coefficient is 0.899, the difference between PE of the impending hazard sample set and affected sample set is most significant. The oilseed rape vernal waterlogging catastrophe distinction index can be used to monitor the waterlogged catastrophe process on a daily basis, and indicate the catastrophe time and the intensity of the disaster, providing theoretical support for the dynamic monitoring of regional oilseed rape waterlogging process and a new idea for the real-time monitoring and early warning of the precipitation process. In the independent sample verification, the maximum value of waterlogging catastrophe index shows a similar distribution with disaster records, and can reflect the actual disaster situation. It can be a better scientific basis for regional disaster controlling and preventing. According to analysis results, the waterlogging-affected frequency of oilseed rape in Hunan shows an overall trend of high in the southeast and low in the northwest. The waterlogging-affected frequency is higher in flowering and fruiting period and lower in mature period. The waterlogging disaster in fruiting period has the most significant effects on the oilseed rape relative meteorological yields. Oilseed rape vernal waterlogged disaster influence index shows a trend of high in the southeast and low in the northwest. The rape yield is most affected by waterlogged disaster in the east of Changsha, central and north of Zhuzhou, Xiangtan, Yongzhou and the middle of Chenzhou. |
| |
| Keywords: | Hunan oilseed rape agricultural waterlogging discriminant index |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
