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Downscaling daily precipitation time series using a combined circulation- and regression-based approach |
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| Authors: | Wei Yang András Bárdossy Hans-Joachim Caspary |
| Institution: | 1. Institute of Hydraulic Engineering, University Stuttgart, 70569, Stuttgart, Germany 3. Swedish Meteorology and Hydrology Institute, Folkborgsv?gen 1, 60176, Norrk?ping, Sweden 2. Department of Civil Engineering, Stuttgart University of Applied Sciences, P.O. Box 10 14 52, 70013, Stuttgart, Germany |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to introduce a new conditional statistical model for generating daily precipitation time series. The generated daily precipitation can thus be used for climate change impact studies, e.g., crop production, rainfall–runoff, and other water-related processes. It is a stochastic model that links local rainfall events to a continuous atmospheric predictor, moisture flux, in addition to classified atmospheric circulation patterns. The coupled moisture flux is proved to be capable of capturing continuous property of climate system and providing extra information to determine rainfall probability and rainfall amount. The application was made to simultaneously downscale daily precipitation at multiple sites within the Rhine River basin. The results show that the model can well reproduce statistical properties of daily precipitation time series. Especially for extreme rainfall events, the model is thought to better reflect rainfall variability compared to the pure CP-based downscaling approach. |
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