Climatic consequences of gradual desertification in the semi-arid area of Northeast Brazil |
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| Authors: | Dayana Castilho de Souza Marcos Daisuke Oyama |
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| Institution: | 1. Centro de Previs?o de Tempo e Estudos Clim??ticos, Instituto de Pesquisas Espaciais, Rodovia Presidente Dutra, Km 40, SP-RJ, Cachoeira Paulista, 12630-000, S?o Paulo, Brazil
2. Divis?o de Ci??ncias Atmosf??ricas, Instituto de Aeron??utica e Espa?o, Pra?a Marechal Eduardo Gomes, 50, Vila das Ac??cias, S?o Jos?? dos Campos, 12.228-904, S?o Paulo, Brazil
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| Abstract: | The climatic impacts of gradual desertification in the semi-arid area of Northeast Brazil (SANEB) were evaluated using the MM5 regional model. Simulations for the rainy season of SANEB (March, April, and May) were performed. Desertification simulations were grouped into three numerical runs: total (all SANEB covered by desert), partial (desert areas placement based on future environmental degradation scenarios for SANEB), and random desertification (desert areas placed randomly within SANEB). Total desertification led to a pronounced and significant precipitation reduction in large parts of SANEB. Climatic impacts of partial desertification were guided by the southward expansion of desert areas. For intermediate desertification extensions, a dipole pattern with precipitation reduction (increase) in the northern (southern) areas of SANEB was found. Random desertification led to climatic impacts spread over the whole SANEB. In both partial and random desertification, a quasi-linear precipitation reduction was found as desertification extension increases. |
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