Thermal Climate Variations and Potential Modification of the Cropping Pattern in Bangladesh |
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| Authors: | R Mahmood |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Geography, College of Geosciences and Science and Public Policy Program, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, U.S.A., US |
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| Abstract: | Summary Changes in the thermal climate due to inter-annual climatic variability can potentially modify existing cropping pattern
by forcing farmers to rearrange transplanting and harvesting dates. In the present study, a crop climate model, the YIELD,
has been applied to 12 meteorological stations located in major rice growing regions in Bangladesh to estimate the effect
of thermal climate variations on the transplanting and harvesting dates of boro rice and the resultant potential changes in
cropping pattern and spatial shift. The abnormal thermal climate scenarios have been created by synthetically perturbing mean
air temperatures (Tair) up to −5 °C to +5 °C with an interval of 1 °C for each of these stations. Historical meteorological records of air temperature
in Bangladesh have been used to prepare these scenarios. The study finds that under abnormally cool conditions transplanting
dates will be pushed well into February to avoid plant injury and harvesting dates will be moved into the monsoon. The growing
seasons will be longer under cooler than normal thermal conditions. Under abnormally warm conditions harvesting dates will
be established well into March and will cause reduction of yield due to a shorter growing season. These conditions will also
cause spatial shift in crop potential and changes in the cropping pattern. Due to a longer boro rice growing season farmers
will lose a significant amount of cropping land which is usually used for low and deep water rice cultivation. New crops will
need to be introduced during the beginning of a year to overcome the loss of production under abnormally cool conditions.
Wheat and potato can be good options for the farmers for such conditions. New aus rice variety needs to be introduced after
the boro harvesting under warmer than the normal conditions to overcome the loss of yield due to a shorter growing season.
Received September 16, 1996 Revised September 8, 1997 |
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