Temperature predictability in the Great Mediterranean Area |
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| Authors: | R García T Muñoz E Hernández P Ribera L Gimeno |
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| Institution: | (1) Departamento de Física de la Tierra, Astronomía y Astrofísica II, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain, SP;(2) Departmento de Física Aplicada, Area de Física de la Tierra, Campus As Lagoas, Universidad de Vigo, Ourense, Spain, SP |
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| Abstract: | Summary ¶Long range forecasting of annual and seasonal average temperatures has been considered from two different approaches in an area centered over the Mediterranean Sea. They both are statistical approaches trying to forecast annual or seasonal mean temperature values several months in advance. The methods are Optimate Climate Normals and an extension of this called Climate Normal Functions. Both methods try to forecast temperature from the past behavior of the series. Their performances are examined and compared. The best results are obtained for Southern Europe, while Eastern Europe exhibits the poorest predictability. The results suggest that the North Atlantic Oscillation can be a major factor ruling predictability in some areas of the region considered.Received January 28, 2003; revised October 24, 2002; accepted December 7, 2002
Published online June 2, 2003 |
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