| 2009年汛期山西横切变暴雨的可预报性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 苗爱梅,袁崇明.2009年汛期山西横切变暴雨的可预报性分析[J].山西气象,2009(4):16-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 苗爱梅 袁崇明 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西省气象台,山西,太原,030006 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用常规和非常规气象观测资料,针对2009年汛期山西境内出现的5次横切变区域性暴雨天气过程进行流型配置、物理量诊断、卫星雷达资料以及可预报性综合分析发现：对流性或混合性暴雨,在暴雨发生前12 h 500 hPa及其以下都具有θse随高度的增加而减小、500 hPa以上都具有θse随高度的增加而增加的特征,稳定性暴雨则具有θse随高度的增加而增加的特征.5次暴雨过程500 hPa副高均为纬向型,700 hPa均有西南急流轴配合以及大陆小高压相伴.分析结果表明：小高压的位置不同导致了不同风向的辐合和不同走向的横切变线产生,急流头向北伸展的纬度不同导致了横切变线所处的纬度差异,直接影响暴雨的落区;低涡的强度不同使得降水量发生明显的差异;高低空系统配置越完整暴雨落区和量级的可预报性也越强;连阴雨过程中垂直速度、水汽通量散度、垂直风切变是提前24 h判断暴雨发生与否的敏感因子,卫星和雷达资料是短时和临近强降水预报的有效工具.
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| 关 键 词： | 横切变暴雨 流型配置 可预报性分析 |
Analysis of Predictability of Transversal Shear Heavy rainfall during Flood Period 2009 in Shanxi Province |
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| Miao Aimei,Yuan Chongming.Analysis of Predictability of Transversal Shear Heavy rainfall during Flood Period 2009 in Shanxi Province[J].Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly,2009(4):16-23. |
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| Authors: | Miao Aimei Yuan Chongming |
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| Institution: | ( Shanxi Meteorological Observatory, Taiyuan , Shanxi, 030006 ) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the conventional and unconventional meteorological data, the five regional heavy rainfall were analyzed which occurred in flood season 2009 in Shanxi province. The results showed that： The 0 se decreased as height increased at 500hPa and below and increased as height increased up 500hPa before convective or mixed type heavy rain occurred 12 hours. The 0 se increased as height increased when the stable heavy rain occurred. Small high-pressure in different positions led to a different wind direction of convergence and different cross-section ot varied-line-generation. Stretching north latitude jet head led to the cross-section of different latitude differences varied-line-direct impact on heavy rainfall drop zone. Low vortex precipitation intensity of the different made the apparent differences. The configuration of high-altitude and low-altitude system was more integrity and the rain fall area and the magnitude was forecasted more predictability. The sensitive factor for forecasting whether the heavy rail occurred before 12 hours were the vertical velocity, vapor flux divergence and vertical wind shear during the continuous rain. |
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| Keywords: | Analysis of variable cross-section prediction of storm-based configuration |
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