| 山西省暴雨落点落区预报业务系统研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 苗爱梅,橄馗峰,等.山西省暴雨落点落区预报业务系统研究[J].山西气象,2001(4):2-5. |
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| 作者姓名： | 苗爱梅 橄馗峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 苗爱梅（山西省气象台,山西,太原,030006）;李馗峰（山西省气象台,山西,太原,030006）;贾利冬（山西省气象台,山西,太原,030006）;袁怀亭（山西省气象台,山西,太原,030006）;任璞（山西省气象台,山西,太原,030006） |
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| 摘 要： | 在用“聚类分析”、“加权压能场和湿斜压”以及“灰色预测”等方法制作山西省汛期暴雨落点落区预报时，同时用“湿辐合”方法进行计算，并采用“湿辐合”与“聚类分析”暴雨落点落区叠合集成，“湿辐合”与“加权压能场湿斜压”暴雨落点落区叠合集成，以及“湿辐合”与“灰色预测”等方法叠合集成，客观地确定出预报量可能出现的落点或落区。经过历史资料回代运算和2001年实时运行表明，此方法预报效果良好。
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| 关 键 词： | 聚类分析 湿辐合 加权压能场 湿斜压 灰色预测 暴雨落点落区预报业务系统 降水预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-5732(2001)04-0002-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年11月20 |
Research about forecast operation system of heavy rain happening point and area in Shanxi province |
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| Mao Aimei,Li Kuifeng,Jia Lidun,Yuan Huaitin,Ren Pu.Research about forecast operation system of heavy rain happening point and area in Shanxi province[J].Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly,2001(4):2-5. |
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| Authors: | Mao Aimei Li Kuifeng Jia Lidun Yuan Huaitin Ren Pu |
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| Abstract: | By using cluster analysis, weighing pressure energy field in humid baroclinity and grey prediction to produce forecast of heavy rain happening point and area in Shanxi province during flood period, coincidentally applying humid convergence way to be calculated, and taking humid convergence with cluster analysis, weighing pressure energy field in humid baroclinity and grey prediction to make repeated consensus of heavy rain happening point and area. The system can determine objectively available happening point and area of forecast value. Through calculating historic data and actually operating in 2001, It shows that forecast effect of the method is excellent. |
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| Keywords: | Cluster analysis humid convergence weighing pressure energy field humid baroclinity grey prediction heavy rain happening point and area repeated consensus |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
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