| 南昌夏季气温变化特征及其预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜荣光,齐冰,陈建萍.南昌夏季气温变化特征及其预测[J].山西气象,2007(1):19-20. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜荣光 齐冰 陈建萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省杭州市气象局 浙江杭州310008(杜荣光，齐冰)，江西省气象台 江西南昌330046(陈建萍) |
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| 摘 要： | 南昌夏季平均气温存在明显的年际变化特征,夏季平均气温有下降的趋势;利用均生函数模型对南昌夏季平均气温趋势进行了拟合和预报,拟合值与实况值基本一致,并预报了2005年～2007年南昌的夏季处于冷夏;分析了南昌夏季最高气温、最低气温变化趋势,结果表明冷夜和暖夜变化具有对称性,冷夜减少和暖夜的增加趋势几乎一致,而冷日和暖日的变化也呈非对称性分布,上升趋势比较明显,但下降趋势不明显。
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| 关 键 词： | 平均气温 最高气温 最低气温 预测 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-08-29 |
Character and prediction of summer temperature in NanChang |
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| Du Rongguang,Qi Bing,Chen Jianping.Character and prediction of summer temperature in NanChang[J].Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly,2007(1):19-20. |
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| Authors: | Du Rongguang Qi Bing Chen Jianping |
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| Institution: | 1. Hangzhou Meteorology Bureau of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310008; 2. Jiangxi Meteorological Observation, Nanchang, Jiangxi, 330046 |
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| Abstract: | There is obviously annual variation in the summer temperature in NanChang, and the mean summer temperature has decrease tendency. Mean Generation Function has been used to regress and predict the summer temperature, the regress similar to the observation, and the prediction shows that Nanchang stay in cold summer during 2005- 2007.The study of tendency of maximum and minimum temperature shows that there is symmetry between clod night and warm night, and they have the same increase tendency. And the clod day and warm day have unsymmetry distribution with obvious increase tendency and unobservious tendency. |
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| Keywords: | mean temperature maximum temperature minimum temperature prediction |
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