| 近58a来玉树站气温变化特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 王传辉,周顺武,李慧.近58a来玉树站气温变化特征[J].四川气象,2010(2):6-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王传辉 周顺武 李慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室;南京信息工程大学大气科学学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划课题,近百年来我国极端天气气候事件变化特征及其影响(2007BAC29B02); 中国气候系统的协同观测与预测研究项目(GYHY200706005) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据青海省玉树站近58 a（1951~2008年）的逐月气温资料,利用线性回归、小波分析、M ann-Kendall法和S/R分析等方法,分析了该站春、夏、秋、冬季及年平均气温的变化特征,结果表明：1）近58 a来玉树站各季节和年平均气温均经历了先降后升的阶段,整体呈现出上升趋势,其中春季气温上升最快的阶段出现在20世纪80到90年代,其它季节和年平均气温出现在20世纪末到21世纪初;2）各季及年平均气温普遍具有准5 a的年际振荡;3）各季和年平均气温突变普遍发生在上世纪90年代;4）根据S/R分析得出,未来一段时期玉树站气温依旧保持增暖趋势,尤其在秋、冬季的增温显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 玉树 气温 趋势 线性回归 小波分析 Mann-Kendall S/R分析 |
Temperature Variations of Yushu Meteorological Station in Recent 58 Years |
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| WANG Chuanhui,ZHOU Shunwu,LI Hui.Temperature Variations of Yushu Meteorological Station in Recent 58 Years[J].Journal of Sichuan Meteorology,2010(2):6-11. |
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| Authors: | WANG Chuanhui ZHOU Shunwu LI Hui |
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| Institution: | WANG Chuanhui1,2,ZHOU Shunwu1,LI Hui1,2(1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology,Nanjing,210044,2.College of Atmospheric Science,210044) |
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| Abstract: | According to the past 58 years(1951-2008)monthly temperature data of Yushu in Qinghai Province,using the linear regression,wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall and S/R analysis,the trends of the seasonal and annual mean temperature were studied.The results show that the phases of both the seasonal and the annual average temperature are firstly decreased and then increased,the linear trend is rising.Except spring is the fastest-rising phase in the 20th century 80 to 90 years,the fastest-rising stages are mostly app... |
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| Keywords: | Yushu temperature linear regression wavelet analysis Mann-Kendall S/R analysis |
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