| 近50年来乌兰乌苏多种天气事件变化特征研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王芳芳,吴燕锋,魏勇.近50年来乌兰乌苏多种天气事件变化特征研究[J].四川气象,2013(4):42-48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王芳芳 吴燕锋 魏勇 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]新疆气象局办公室,乌鲁木齐830002 [2]新疆农业大学草业与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830002 [3]石河子气象局,石河子832000 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用乌兰乌苏镇1964～2012年的气象资料,选取逐年平均气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温、大风、雷暴、沙尘暴、沙尘天气及大雾、轻雾天气出现的天数作为分析对象,运用3年移动平均法、回归分析法、非参数检验方法的Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检验法以及小波分析法,进行了多种天气事件的年纪变化趋势分析.结果表明：（1）大雾天气的发生日数呈增加趋势,沙尘天气、沙尘暴天气、轻雾天气、大风天气和雷暴天气的发生日数都呈减少趋势,其中大风天气发生日数减少趋势最为明显.（2）平均气温、年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温、大雾天气、轻雾天气、沙尘暴天气、雷暴天气和沙尘天气在研究时段都出现了突变,且平均气温、轻雾天气、沙尘天气和雷暴天气在突变之后不久都达到了极显著的上升或者下降变化趋势.（3）平均气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温、大雾天气、雷暴天气和大风天气有明显的周期性,但是不同的气象要素周期性长短是不同的,沙尘、沙尘暴和轻雾天气则没有明显的周期性.
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| 关 键 词： | 乌兰乌苏 近49年 天气事件 Mann-Kendall法 小波分析法 |
Analysis of Several Weather Events in Ulamwusu during 1964 ～2012 |
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| WANG Fangfang,WU Yanfeng,WEI Yong.Analysis of Several Weather Events in Ulamwusu during 1964 ～2012[J].Journal of Sichuan Meteorology,2013(4):42-48. |
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| Authors: | WANG Fangfang WU Yanfeng WEI Yong |
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| Institution: | 1. Urumqi Meteorological Burean, Urumqi 832000, China ; 2. College of Grassland and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China ; 3. Shihezi Meteorological Burean, Shihezi 832000, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily observation data during 1964 ~ 2012 ,the change of extreme weather in Ulam Wusu were analyzed by appling regression analysis method, three years moving average method, Mann - Kendall trend test for nonparametric test method and wavelet analysis method. Results show that ： 1 ） The thick fog events had the increasing trend but the gale weather, thunderstorms, sandstorm, sand and and thick fog events presented the declining trend. 2） The abrupt change of the average temperature, the extreme minimum temperature, the extreme maximum temperature, thick fog, light fog, sandstorm, sand and thunderstorms events occuranced in different year in the entire study period, and the average temperature, light fog, dust and thunderstorm events shortly reached a very significant increase or decrease trend, respectively. 3 ） There are obvious periodic oscillations existed in the trend of the average temperature, the extreme minimum and maximum temperature, the thick fog events, thunderstorm events and the gale weather, but the oscillations characters were different between six events. The dust, sandstorm and light fog events have no obvious periodic oscillations. |
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| Keywords: | Ulamwusu latest 49 years weather events Mann - Kendall trend test for nonparametric test method wavelet analysis method |
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