| 多模式热动力耦合诊断系统与暴雨预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 缪强,黄德刚,徐虹,李强,代婷婷,张成宏,牟鸿鹄.多模式热动力耦合诊断系统与暴雨预报[J].四川气象,2009(4):10-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 缪强 黄德刚 徐虹 李强 代婷婷 张成宏 牟鸿鹄 |
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| 作者单位： | 自贡市气象台; |
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| 基金项目： | 四川省局重点课题(市州短临预报初步研究) |
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| 摘 要： | 应用包含热动力耦合强迫的新型散度演化方程，研发了该方程的诊断计算方案和相应的软件系统，以多个数值预报模式产品为资料源，计算得到关于强降水激发、维持的热动力耦合诊断场，形成了一个多时效的诊断场序列，它包含了正压非平衡强迫和热动力耦合强迫对散度演化的作用，反映了暴雨激发和持续的数值特征，为探索暴雨激发维持机理和寻求暴雨预报指标提供了数据支持。多模式诊断场的综合分析是集合预报方法的一种实践，有利于提高预报准确率。我们对2009年的两次暴雨个例进行了诊断分析，结果表明：T213、T639模式的诊断场能够较为准确的预报出暴雨的开始和结束，有明显的预报指示意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨预报 热动力耦合强迫 散度演化方程 诊断分析 |
A Multi-mode Diagnostic System with Coupled Dynamic and Thermodynamic and Its Application in Rainstorm Forecast |
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| MIAO Qiang,HUANG Degang,XU Hong,LI Qiang,DAI Tingting,ZHANG Chenghong,MU Honghu.A Multi-mode Diagnostic System with Coupled Dynamic and Thermodynamic and Its Application in Rainstorm Forecast[J].Journal of Sichuan Meteorology,2009(4):10-17. |
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| Authors: | MIAO Qiang HUANG Degang XU Hong LI Qiang DAI Tingting ZHANG Chenghong MU Honghu |
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| Institution: | MIAO Qiang,HUANG Degang,XU Hong,LI Qiang,DAI Tingting,ZHANG Chenghong,MU Honghu(Zi Gong Meteorological observatory,643000) |
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| Abstract: | In this study,a new equation of divergence containing coupling forces between dynamic and thermodynamic is used to research and develop a diagnosis calculation scheme and a corresponding software system.The system adopts multiple products of numerical prediction models for calculating coupling fields between dynamic and thermodynamic about occurrence and maintenance of rainstorm and forming a multi-time effect diagnosis field.It contains barotropic non-equilibrium forcing and the coupling forcing of dynamic... |
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| Keywords: | Rainstorm forecast Coupling forces between dynamic and thermodynamic fields Equation of divergence evolution Diagnosis analysis |
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