| 热带北大西洋海温异常对南海夏季风的影响及其机理 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐集云,霍利微,宋超辉,刘樱,陈君芝,庆涛.热带北大西洋海温异常对南海夏季风的影响及其机理[J].大气科学学报,2019,42(2):293-302. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐集云 霍利微 宋超辉 刘樱 陈君芝 庆涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省气候中心;南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;南京信息工程大学大气科学学院;南京市江宁区气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省自然科学基金资助项目（BK20160956）；南京信息工程大学人才启动项目（2015r035） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用HadiSST资料、CMAP降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了热带北大西洋(Northern Tropical Atlantic,NTA)海表温度异常(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)与南海夏季风(South China Sea Summer Monsoon,SCSSM)的联系及可能机制。观测分析表明,夏季NTA海温异常与SCSSM存在显著的负相关关系;NTA海温正异常时,北半球副热带东太平洋至大西洋区域存在气旋式环流异常,有利于热带大西洋(热带中太平洋)地区产生异常上升(下沉)运动,使得西北太平洋地区出现反气旋环流异常,该反气旋环流异常西侧的南风异常使得SCSSM增强。利用春季NTA指数、东南印度洋海温异常指数、北太平洋海温异常指数、南太平洋经向模(South Pacific Ocean Meridional Dipole,SPOMD)及Niňo3.4指数构建了SCSSM季节预测模型,预测模型后报与观测的SCSSM指数的相关系数为0.81,表明该模型可较好预测SCSSM。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带北大西洋 海温异常 南海夏季风 机制 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/8/31 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/10/15 0:00:00 |
Influence of northern tropical Atlantic SST anomaly on South China Sea summer monsoon and its mechanism |
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| XUN Jiyun,HUO Liwei,SONG Chaohui,LIU Ying,CHEN Junzhi and QING Tao.Influence of northern tropical Atlantic SST anomaly on South China Sea summer monsoon and its mechanism[J].大气科学学报,2019,42(2):293-302. |
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| Authors: | XUN Jiyun HUO Liwei SONG Chaohui LIU Ying CHEN Junzhi and QING Tao |
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| Institution: | Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou 310017, China,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou 310017, China,Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou 310017, China,School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China and Jiangning Meteorological Bureau of Nanjing, Nanjing 211100, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the connection and possible mechanism between sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) and the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) using HadiSST data,CMAP precipitation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.The observation analysis shows that there is a significant negative correlation between NTA SSTA and SCSSM in summer.Positive NTA SSTA can cause cyclonic circulation anomalies in the subtropical East Pacific to Atlantic region of the Northern Hemisphere,which is conducive to abnormal ascending (descending) motion in the tropical Atlantic (tropical central Pacific) region.The motions can cause the anomalous anticyclone circulation in the northwestern Pacific region,and the south wind anomalies on the west side of the anticyclone circulation anomaly enhance the SCSSM.The SCSSM seasonal prediction model is constructed by using spring NTA index,SST anomaly index in southeastern Indian Ocean,SST anomaly index in North Pacific,South Pacific Ocean Meridional Dipole (SPOMD),and Niño3.4 index.Correlation coefficient between the observed SCSSM index and the hindcast of the model is 0.81,showing that the model can predict SCSSM well. |
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| Keywords: | northern tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly South China Sea summer monsoon mechanism |
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