| 安徽省酷热天气分析及预报指标 |
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| 引用本文： | 张娇,王东勇,童金,余金龙,徐怡,郑淋淋,陶玮.安徽省酷热天气分析及预报指标[J].大气科学学报,2020,43(2):405-415. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张娇 王东勇 童金 余金龙 徐怡 郑淋淋 陶玮 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽省气象台强天气集合分析和预报重点实验室,安徽合肥230031;安徽省气象科学研究所安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室,安徽合肥230031 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省重点研究和开发计划项目（201904a07020099）；中国气象局决策气象服务专项经费研究项目面上项目（JCZX2020007）；安徽省气象局新技术集成项目（AHXJ201701；AHXJ201803）；国家青年基金项目（41705029） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于安徽省1961-2017年逐日地面最高气温资料,采用Mann-Kendall法对安徽省高温天气事件进行突变分析,发现安徽省2000年后高温事件明显增加。为分析安徽省酷热天气特征和产生机理,文中挑选了35~37℃高温天气个例对比分析。结果发现:1)500 hPa西太平洋副高位置和850 hPa气温对酷热天气预报的指示性最好。2)受西太平洋副热带高压不同位置控制,安徽省增温机制不同:当为高压中心控制时,太阳辐射在增温过程中起决定性作用,安徽省易出现酷热天气;当高压中心位于海上,脊线位于安徽省附近时,安徽省高温强度较弱。通过酷热天气个例研究和合成平均分析,文中总结了安徽省酷热天气预报指标。
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| 关 键 词： | 酷热天气 西太平洋副热带高压 850hPa气温 因子估算 预报指标 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/7/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/11/10 0:00:00 |
Analysis and forecast indexes of extreme hot weather in Anhui Province |
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| ZHANG Jiao,WANG Dongyong,TONG Jin,YU Jinlong,XU Yi,ZHENG Linlin and TAO Wei.Analysis and forecast indexes of extreme hot weather in Anhui Province[J].大气科学学报,2020,43(2):405-415. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jiao WANG Dongyong TONG Jin YU Jinlong XU Yi ZHENG Linlin and TAO Wei |
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| Institution: | Key Lab of Strong Weather Analysis and Forecast, Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031, China,Key Lab of Strong Weather Analysis and Forecast, Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031, China,Key Lab of Strong Weather Analysis and Forecast, Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031, China,Anhui Key Lab of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing, Anhui Institute of Meteorological, Hefei 230031, China,Key Lab of Strong Weather Analysis and Forecast, Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031, China,Key Lab of Strong Weather Analysis and Forecast, Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031, China and Key Lab of Strong Weather Analysis and Forecast, Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily maximum ground temperature data in Anhui Province from 1961 to 2017,the mutation analysis of high temperature events in Anhui Province was carried out by using Mann Kendall method,and it was found that the high temperature events increased significantly after 2000.In order to analyze the characteristics and mechanism of the extreme hot weather in Anhui Province,35-37 ℃ high temperature weather cases were selected for comparative analysis.The results showed that:( 1) location of subtropical high in the Western Pacific at 500 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa were the best indicators for surface high temperature prediction.( 2) As the center of the western Pacific subtropical high was at different locations,the warming mechanism in Anhui Province was obviously different.If the area was controlled by the center of the subtropical high,the heat caused by solar radiation was much larger than that from the airflowsubsidence,thus Anhui Province was prone to experience extreme hot weather. When the center of the western Pacific subtropical high was over the sea and Anhui Province was near its ridge,the intensity of high temperature weather was much weaker in Anhui Province.Based on case study and composite average analysis,the paper summarized the forecast indexes of extreme hot weather in Anhui Province. |
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| Keywords: | extreme hot weather the Western Pacific Subtropical High 850 hPa temperature factor estimation forecast index |
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