| SVD在识别江苏气旋类暴雨过程敏感区信号中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨梦兮,刘梅,俞剑蔚,胡瑞金,陈圣劼.SVD在识别江苏气旋类暴雨过程敏感区信号中的应用[J].大气科学学报,2020,43(2):310-321. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨梦兮 刘梅 俞剑蔚 胡瑞金 陈圣劼 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省泰州市气象局,江苏泰州225300;江苏省气象台,江苏南京210008;中国海洋大学物理海洋实验室／山东省高校海洋-大气相互作用与气候重点实验室,山东青岛266100 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省自然科学基金面上资助项目（BK20161604）；国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFC1502002）；江苏省气象局青年基金（KQ201817） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用ECMWF集合预报资料,采取连续SVD的方法作为敏感性分析的工具,对同受江淮气旋影响的江苏省沿江苏南和淮北地区两次不同暴雨过程中海平面气压场的敏感区进行诊断分析。结果表明:1)敏感信号最早可提前2 d左右被锁定,存在明显地东传特征,也有位相之间转换。2)沿江苏南的降水过程中信号最早出现在江西北部和湖南西北部,主要沿着长江一线向下游传播;正负信号的转换对应有雨带位置向南调整,而一致的负信号可引起降水整体偏多,反之亦然。3)淮北暴雨预报的不确定性始于江苏中东部沿海,它的正扰动和湖北北部的负扰动都可使异常雨带呈东北-西南向正-负形式的分布,而以鄂西为中心的正扰动则可使得区域降水整体偏弱,反之也都亦然;但这些信号主要沿着鄂-豫-皖-苏一线传播。4)两次过程前两模态的敏感区在覆盖离散度的大值区域上有一定的互补性。
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| 关 键 词： | 集合敏感性 SVD 暴雨 海平面气压 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/11/16 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/5/23 0:00:00 |
Applications of SVD in identifying signals of sensitive areas in two processes of Jiangsu Cyclonic Rainstorms |
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| YANG Mengxi,LIU Mei,YU Jianwei,HU Ruijin and CHEN Shengjie.Applications of SVD in identifying signals of sensitive areas in two processes of Jiangsu Cyclonic Rainstorms[J].大气科学学报,2020,43(2):310-321. |
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| Authors: | YANG Mengxi LIU Mei YU Jianwei HU Ruijin and CHEN Shengjie |
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| Institution: | Taizhou Meteorological Observatory, Taizhou 225300, China,Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008, China,Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008, China,Physical Oceanography Laboratory, The Key Laboratory of Ocean Atmospheric Interaction and Climate in Universities of Shandong, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China and Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008, China |
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| Abstract: | In this study,using the ensemble forecast data of ECMWF and moving SVD methods,the sensitive areas of sea level pressure in the processes of two cyclonic rainstorm cases in Jiangsu Province are identified and compared.One case occurred along the Yangtze River and southern areas of Jiangsu,and the other in Huaibei District of Jiangsu.The main results are as follows:1)The sensitive signals can be locked two days prior,and propagate eastward with phase transition occurring.2)The signals first appeared in northern Jiangxi and northwestern Hunan Provinces.In the case of rainstorms along the Yangtze River and southern areas of Jiangsu,the signals then generally spread downstream along the Yangtze River.The phase transition from positive to negative signal corresponds to the southward adjustment of the rain belt,while the consistent negative signals cause an increase in precipitation as a whole,and vice versa.3)In the case of rainstorms occurring in Huaibei,the uncertainty of the forecast results originates from the east central coast of Jiangsu,namely both its positive and negative perturbation in northern Hubei may have led to the anomalous rain belt exhibiting a northeast-southwestward distribution with positive-negative signals.At the same time,the positive perturbation in western Hubei may have caused a decrease in precipitation throughout region,and vice versa.However,all of these signals were distributed along the trajectory of Hubei-Henan-Anhui-Jiangsu.4)The sensitive areas of the first two modes in each rainstorm are relatively complementary in terms of covering the high value region of the ensemble dispersion. |
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| Keywords: | ensemble sensitivity SVD rainstorm sea level pressure |
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