| ENSO对中国南方降水低频变率的可能影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 张文君,雷徐奔,耿新,祁莉.ENSO对中国南方降水低频变率的可能影响[J].大气科学学报,2018,41(5):585-595. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张文君 雷徐奔 耿新 祁莉 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 全球变化与海气相互作用专项（GASI-IPOVAI-03）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（41675073）；江苏省六大人才高峰和333高层次人才培养工程 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1979—2012年Hadley中心海表温度、中国2 474个台站逐日降水和NCEP/NCAR全球再分析资料,分析了不同类型ENSO事件秋冬季和次年春季中国南方地区10~30 d降水低频变率的变化特征。结果表明,中国南方地区10~30 d降水低频变率对不同类型ENSO事件的响应存在显著的季节差异。EP型El Ni1o的冬季和次年春季,低频降水变率显著增强; CP型El Ni1o秋冬季低频降水强度呈现相反的异常,秋季低频降水偏弱,而冬季则偏强; La Ni1a事件期间中国南方低频降水变率的变化较小且不稳定。进一步分析发现,ENSO对南方地区10~30 d低频降水变率的影响与西北太平洋地区季节平均大气环流背景场对ENSO的响应密切相关。相比正常年份,EP型El Ni1o冬春季菲律宾反气旋性异常环流的强度较强且范围较大,其西侧的异常西南风向中国南方地区输送了大量水汽,从而有利于低频降水的增强; CP型El Ni1o年秋季西北太平洋表现为气旋性环流异常,抑制了热带水汽向东亚大陆的输送,而冬季却产生了与EP型El Ni1o年类似的异常反气旋环流,只是强度有所减弱,因此中国南方地区低频降水强度在秋冬季呈相反异常。La Ni1a年菲律宾附近虽然存在气旋性环流异常,但强度较弱,因而我国南方地区低频降水变率的响应也较弱。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国南方地区 10～30 d低频降水变率 ENSO |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/1/1 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/3/13 0:00:00 |
Possible impacts of ENSO on the intra-seasonal variability of precipitation over southern China |
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| ZHANG Wenjun,LEI Xuben,GENG Xin and QI Li.Possible impacts of ENSO on the intra-seasonal variability of precipitation over southern China[J].大气科学学报,2018,41(5):585-595. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Wenjun LEI Xuben GENG Xin and QI Li |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
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| Abstract: | In this study, the features of intra-seasonal(10-30 d) precipitation variability over southern China during the autumn, winter and following spring season of different types of ENSO events are analyzed based on the Hadley Centre sea surface temperature(SST), National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR) atmospheric circulation data, and China daily rainfall station data. The results show that the impacts of different ENSO types on the intra-seasonal(10-30 d) precipitation variability over southern China vary with the different seasons. During the winter and following spring of EP El Niño events, the 10-30 d precipitation variability over southern China is significantly enhanced. Intra-seasonal precipitation variance is weakened during the CP El Niño autumn, yet strengthened during the CP El Niño winter, thus showing inverse features. The impacts of La Niña events on the 10-30 d precipitation variabilities are relatively minor and unstable. Further analyses show that the impact on the 10-30 d precipitation variability is closely related to the responses of seasonal atmospheric circulation anomalies over the western North Pacific associated with ENSO events. Compared with normal years, a strong anticyclonic circulation anomaly occurs over the Philippines during the EP El Niño years. The anomalous southerly winds on the western side of the anticyclone transport much greater amounts of water vapor northward to southern China, which favors the strengthened 10-30 d rainfall variability. However, an anomalous cyclonic circulation occurs in the western North Pacific during the CP El Niño autumn, which suppresses the tropical water vapor transporting northward to the East Asian continent. During CP El Niño winters, an anomalous anticyclone appears over the western North Pacific, and though its intensity is weak, it accounts for the inverse low frequency rainfall responses in autumn and winter. When La Niña occurs, the anomalous cyclonic circulation over the Philippines is weak, which results in the relatively weaker responses of the 10-30 d precipitation variability over southern China. |
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| Keywords: | southern China 10-30 d intra-seasonal precipitation variability ENSO |
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