| 23个CMIP5模式对厄尔尼诺事件生命史模拟能力的评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 姜有山,张高杰,陈明诚,葛旭阳.23个CMIP5模式对厄尔尼诺事件生命史模拟能力的评估[J].大气科学学报,2018,41(5):608-619. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜有山 张高杰 陈明诚 葛旭阳 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京市气象局, 江苏 南京 210019;中国民用航空西北地区空中交通管理局气象中心, 陕西 西安 710082;南京信息工程大学, 江苏 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学, 江苏 南京 210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 华东区域气象科技协同创新基金合作项目（QYHZ201604） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用23个CMIP5气候模式历史模拟试验数据,评估模式对于厄尔尼诺事件生命史的模拟能力。评估结果显示,有1/3的模式可以很好地再现厄尔尼诺生命史演变过程,而另有1/3的模式对厄尔尼诺生命史模拟能力较弱。观测分析结果表明,动力(海洋温度平流)和热力(海洋表面热量通量)强迫作用对厄尔尼诺快速衰减过程都有贡献。前者主要与西北太平洋区域风场响应有关,而后者主要与"云—辐射—海温"负反馈过程有关。模拟能力较强的CMIP5模式中海温距平中心相对偏东,因此海洋纬向平流负反馈和短波辐射负反馈作用较强,衰减阶段中海温衰减更快。而模拟能力较弱的气候模式中海温距平中心相对偏西,因此动力和热力过程较弱,海温衰减缓慢。由于衰减变率不同,前者海表温度距平在发展年次年夏季时符号发生改变,而后者依然维持相同的符号。由季节决定的大气—海洋相互作用所引发的不稳定增长过程在北半球秋季时期进一步参与其中,因此较好的模式中负海温距平继续增长并转变成拉尼娜,而模拟能力较弱的模式中始终维持暖海温距平,没有形成拉尼娜。分析结果同时表明,仍然有1/3的气候模式不能很好地模拟出厄尔尼诺事件位相锁定特征。
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| 关 键 词： | 海气相互作用 模式评估 ENSO动力学 生命史演变 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/3/30 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/5/30 0:00:00 |
Evolution features of El Niño events simulated by 23 CMIP5 models |
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| JIANG Youshan,ZHANG Gaojie,CHEN Mingcheng and GE Xuyang.Evolution features of El Niño events simulated by 23 CMIP5 models[J].大气科学学报,2018,41(5):608-619. |
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| Authors: | JIANG Youshan ZHANG Gaojie CHEN Mingcheng and GE Xuyang |
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| Institution: | Nanjing Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing 210019, China;Meteorological Center of Northwest Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau, Xi''an 710082, China;Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the output data from 23 CMIP5 models, the evolution features of El Niño events were studied. The results showed that one third of the CMIP5 models can well demonstrate the evolution process of El Niño events while another one third of the models can not. Both dynamic and thermodynamic processes contributed to the fast decaying process of El Niño events. The former was related to wind responses in western Pacific whereas the latter was associated with cloud-radiation-SST feedback. The good models had the feature that a sea surface temperature anomaly center was located in the equatorial eastern Pacific region, while it tended to shift westward in the pool models. As a result, a strong negative SSTA tendency occurred during El Niño decaying phase in the good models and a much weaker SSTA tendency occurred in the pool models. Such a difference led to a SSTA sign change ñn next summer of El Niño events in the good models but there was no such sign change in pool models. A season-dependent coupled instability caused by sea-air interaction joined in autumn in northern hemisphere. Therefore, in good models, the negative SSTA developed and changed into a La Niña event and in pool models it maintained an El Niño episode. Results also showed that one third of the CMIP5 models could not well simulate the phase locking feature of El Niño events. |
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| Keywords: | Sea-air interaction Model assessment ENSO dynamics Life evolution |
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