| 3个月平均气温距平的CCA预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 余金波,吴洪宝.3个月平均气温距平的CCA预报方法[J].大气科学学报,2001,24(2):171-177. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余金波 吴洪宝 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京气象学院大气科学系, 南京210044;南京气象学院大气科学系, 南京210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目G1998040901-3资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 用根据CCA方法设计的-个统计预报模式对我国3个月平均气温距平进行预报试验,并用交叉检验方法进行估计。结果表明:预报技巧随提前时间增长而减小得较少;用全球表面温度作预报因子有较高的预报技巧;7、8、9月3个月较易预报,而10、11、12月3个月较难预报。
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| 关 键 词： | 典型相关分析 交叉检验 温度距平 |
| 收稿时间： | 2000/9/29 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001/1/4 0:00:00 |
CCA forecast scheme of 3-month mean temperature anomaly |
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| YU Jin-bo and WU Hong-bao.CCA forecast scheme of 3-month mean temperature anomaly[J].大气科学学报,2001,24(2):171-177. |
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| Authors: | YU Jin-bo and WU Hong-bao |
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| Institution: | Department of Atmospheric Sciences, NIM, Nanjing 210044;Department of Atmospheric Sciences, NIM, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | A statistical model is CCA designed to forecast 3 month mean temperature anomaly in China,which is estimated by using cross verification scheme,indicating that the skill decreases slowly with the increased leading time intervals;higher skills are found for quasi global surface temperature as a predictor;it''s easy to predict JAS temperature and hard to deal with OND analog.Some meaningful results are obtained from the forecast skill analysis. |
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| Keywords: | canonical correlation analysis cross verification temperature anomaly |
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