| 复杂下垫面风电场风速数值模拟及误差特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 祖繁,樊曙先,王咏薇,吴息.复杂下垫面风电场风速数值模拟及误差特征[J].大气科学学报,2016,39(5):672-682. |
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| 作者姓名： | 祖繁 樊曙先 王咏薇 吴息 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 大气物理学院, 江苏 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 大气物理学院, 江苏 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 大气环境中心, 江苏 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 大气环境中心, 江苏 南京 210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省科技支撑计划（BE2010200）；江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目（PAPD） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用WRF模式分别对沿海及山地条件下风电场风速进行高分辨数值模拟,并对其误差特征进行分析,结果表明:1)WRF模式对复杂地形条件下的风速模拟性能良好,模拟值较好地体现天气尺度的周期变化;2)沿海及山地条件下模拟与观测的误差特征各不相同。模式静态数据未能显现沿海的小岛,并且低估了山地测风塔所在的海拔,导致沿海平均模拟风速偏大,山地平均模拟风速偏小;3)分析不同风向的归一化均方根误差,沿海陆风情况下,下垫面相对复杂,误差明显增大;沿海海风情况下,下垫面均一,误差明显减小;4)仅作单个风电场周边数百平方千米的模拟,采用一台12核的服务器进行WRF模式的并行计算可满足48 h短期预测的时效性。仅仅提高模拟的网格分辨率,并不一定能提升模拟的准确性。
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| 关 键 词： | 复杂下垫面 WRF模式 风速 数值模拟 误差特征 网格分辨率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012/12/24 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013/8/23 0:00:00 |
Numerical simulation and error characteristics for wind speed on a wind farm over a complex underlying surface |
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| ZU Fan,FAN Shuxian,WANG Yongwei and WU Xi.Numerical simulation and error characteristics for wind speed on a wind farm over a complex underlying surface[J].大气科学学报,2016,39(5):672-682. |
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| Authors: | ZU Fan FAN Shuxian WANG Yongwei and WU Xi |
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| Institution: | School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Atmospheric Environment Center, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Atmospheric Environment Center, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
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| Abstract: | Accurate wind speed forecasts ensure the timely dispatch of power,thereby improving the economic effectiveness of wind power.The traditional methods of wind speed prediction focus on statistical models,but these are unable to satisfy requirements in terms of precision and time.Numerical models have become more prevalent in wind speed forecasting in recent years.Accordingly,in order to investigate simulation accuracy,error characteristics and time effectiveness for wind speed simulation of a numerical model over a complex underlying surface,one-month long wind speeds at the heights of 10 m,30 m,50 m and 70 m on a wind farm in Liuao (coastal area) and Jiucaiping (mountain area) are respectively simulated using the WRF model.The main results and discussion points are as follows:(1)The comparison of simulated and observed wind speeds at different heights indicates that the WRF model performs well in simulating the wind speed over a complex underlying surface,the simulated wind speed trends are in good agreement with the observations in both coastal and mountain areas,and the synoptic-scale variations are also well reflected in the simulation.However,the fluctuation caused by the local circulation and turbulence is hard to capture in the wind speed simulation.Besides,statistical assessments using correlation coefficients,relative error,root-mean-square error(RMSE) and index of agreement show that the accuracy of wind speed simulation does not enhance with increased height in coastal areas,but improves significantly in mountain areas.(2)The error characteristics between simulations and observations are different in coastal and mountain areas.Compared with the real landforms,the small island in coastal areas does not appear in the model''s static terrestrial data.As a result,the frictional effect of the underlying island is neglected in the simulation,and the average simulated wind speeds are overestimated in coastal areas.Nevertheless,the elevation of the wind tower in mountain areas decreases in the static terrestrial data due to the weakening of the actual mountain slope,and thus the average simulated wind speeds are underestimated in mountain areas.(3)The normalized RMSE of wind speeds is analyzed in different directions.The normalized RMSE increases significantly due to the relatively complex underlying surface in the case of land breezes,and decreases due to the homogeneous underlying surface in the case of sea breezes in coastal areas.Conversely,the normalized RMSE distribution is not obvious in mountain areas.The obvious error distribution characteristics provide a direction for further error correction of wind speed forecasting on wind farms in coastal areas.(4)To forecast the wind speed on a scale of a few hundred kilometers surrounding the wind farm,parallel computation of the WRF model using a server with 12-core processors is sufficient to meet the time effectiveness of 48-h short-term forecasts.However,only increasing the grid resolution is not necessary to improve the accuracy of the simulation.Therefore,in the practical application of wind speed forecasting on a wind farm,it is important to set an appropriate grid resolution for the balance between simulation accuracy and time effectiveness.More accurate terrestrial data should be introduced to improve the precision. |
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| Keywords: | complex underlying surface WRF model numerical simulation wind speed error characteristics grid resolution |
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