| 气候变化背景下北极利益博弈与风险评估——建模与仿真 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨孟倩,张韧,葛珊珊,王哲,徐威.气候变化背景下北极利益博弈与风险评估——建模与仿真[J].大气科学学报,2019,42(5):672-679. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨孟倩 张韧 葛珊珊 王哲 徐威 |
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| 作者单位： | 92872部队气象台, 辽宁 葫芦岛 125200,国防科技大学 气象海洋学院, 江苏 南京 211101,金陵科技学院, 江苏 南京 211101,92192部队9分队, 浙江 宁波 315000,92098部队, 海南 乐东 572500 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（41976188） |
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| 摘 要： | 鉴于北极风险评估中定量数据匮乏、定性知识难以定量化和权重要素确定中主观性强等困难,传统的风险评估方法无法有效解决。通过引入"云模型"实现了定性知识的量化表达;运用模糊层次分析法提高了权重的客观性;针对气候变化背景下北极区域响应及其地缘格局变化和利益博弈问题,运用上述改进方法和技术途径对北极地区利益博弈和安全风险进行了评估建模和实验仿真,提出了一些研究见解和决策咨询信息。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 北极博弈 云模型 模糊层次分析 风险评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/1/21 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/8/22 0:00:00 |
Arctic interest game and risk assessment in the context of climate change: modeling and simulation |
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| YANG Mengqian,ZHANG Ren,GE Shanshan,WANG Zhe and XU Wei.Arctic interest game and risk assessment in the context of climate change: modeling and simulation[J].大气科学学报,2019,42(5):672-679. |
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| Authors: | YANG Mengqian ZHANG Ren GE Shanshan WANG Zhe and XU Wei |
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| Institution: | 92192 troops of the Chinese People''s Liberation Army, Huludao 125200, China,National University of Defense Technology, Meteorological and Oceanographic College, Nanjing 211101, China,Jingling Institute of Technology, Nanjing 211101, China,The 9th detachment of the 92192 troops of the Chinese People''s Liberation Army, Ningbo 315000, China and 92098 troops of the Chinese People''s Liberation Army, Ledong 572500, China |
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| Abstract: | Due to the lack of quantitative data regarding Arctic risk assessment,the difficulties in quantifying qualitative knowledge,and the subjectivity in determining weight factors,the traditional risk assessment methods cannot be effectively solved.Therefore,in this paper the quantitative analysis of qualitative knowledge is realized by introducing the "cloud model".First,the objectivity of the weights is improved by the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP).Next,in response to the change of the Arctic regional response and its geopolitics and the game of interests under the background of climate change,the above methods and techniques are improved.This paper then presents an evaluation model and experimental simulation of interest games and security risks in the Arctic,and proposes some research opinions and information pertaining to decision-making consultation. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Arctic game cloud model fuzzy analytic hierarchy process risk assessment |
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