| 降水的统计降尺度预报及其空间相关性和时间连续性重建 |
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| 引用本文： | 王姝苏,智协飞,俞剑蔚,陈超辉,周红梅,朱寿鹏,赵欢.降水的统计降尺度预报及其空间相关性和时间连续性重建[J].大气科学学报,2018,41(1):36-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王姝苏 智协飞 俞剑蔚 陈超辉 周红梅 朱寿鹏 赵欢 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室;江苏省盐城市大丰区气象局;南京大气科学联合研究中心;江苏省气象台;国防科技大学气象海洋学院;武汉中心气象台; |
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| 基金项目： | 北极阁开放研究基金南京大气科学联合研究中心重点项目（NJCAR2016ZD04）；深圳南方强天气研究重点实验室项目；江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目（PAPD） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、日本气象厅(JMA)、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)以及英国气象局(UKMO)四个中心1~7 d日累计降水量集合预报资料,以中国降水融合产品作为"观测值",对我国地面降水量进行统计降尺度预报,并对预报降水的空间相关性和时间连续性进行重建。对降水量进行分级后,建立各个量级的回归方程进行统计降尺度预报。此外,还利用Schaake Shuffle方法重建丢失的空间相关性和时间连续性。结果表明,分级回归比未分级回归后的预报结果相关系数更高,预报误差更小,更接近观测值。Schaake Shuffle方法可以有效地改进降水预报的空间相关性和时间连续性,使之更接近实况观测,集合成员间的相关性也更好。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水量预报 统计降尺度 Schaake Shuffle方法 相关性重建 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/10/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016/12/29 0:00:00 |
Statistical downscaling forecast and reconstruction of spatial and temporal correlation of the precipitation |
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| WANG Shusu,ZHI Xiefei,YU Jianwei,CHEN Chaohui,ZHOU Hongmei,ZHU Shoupeng and ZHAO Huan.Statistical downscaling forecast and reconstruction of spatial and temporal correlation of the precipitation[J].大气科学学报,2018,41(1):36-45. |
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| Authors: | WANG Shusu ZHI Xiefei YU Jianwei CHEN Chaohui ZHOU Hongmei ZHU Shoupeng and ZHAO Huan |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster(CIC-FEMD)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Meteorological Bureau Dafeng District, Yancheng 224100, China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster(CIC-FEMD)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Nanjing Joint Center for Atmospheric Research, Nanjing 210008, China;Weather Observatory of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210008, China;College of Meteorology and Oceanography, Defense University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster(CIC-FEMD)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster(CIC-FEMD)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory, Wuhan 430074, China |
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| Abstract: | |
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| Keywords: | precipitation forecast statistical downscaling Schaake Shuffle method correlation reconstruction |
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