| 气候反馈对温度空间模态的依赖性:IPCC AR6解读 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王菲,张华,刘梦婷,于晓超,赵树云.气候反馈对温度空间模态的依赖性:IPCC AR6解读[J].大气科学学报,2022,45(6):826-834. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王菲 张华 刘梦婷 于晓超 赵树云 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院 灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京 100081;中国地质大学 环境学院大气科学系, 湖北 武汉 430078 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603502);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42275039) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 依据政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第六次评估报告(AR6)第一工作组(WGI)报告第七章的内容,详细解读了气候反馈对温度空间模态的依赖性。与第五次评估报告(AR5)相比,AR6对于地表温度空间模态演变在驱动气候反馈变化中作用的理解已有了较大提升。AR6认为,在温室气体强迫下,北极在21世纪的增温幅度很可能大于全球平均水平,南极在百年时间尺度上的增温要强于热带地区;同时,在百年时间尺度上热带太平洋东部的变暖幅度大于西部,即热带太平洋东-西向海表温度梯度减弱。极地放大效应(尤其是南半球)和热带太平洋东-西向海表温度梯度随时间的变化是影响未来气候反馈如何演变的关键因素。随着地表增温空间模态的演变,气候反馈(尤其云反馈)预计将在未来几十年的时间尺度上逐渐增加,对气候变化更多是起放大作用。
|
| 关 键 词： | IPCC AR6 气候反馈 温度空间模态 极地放大 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/9/28 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/11/2 0:00:00 |
Dependence of climate feedbacks on temperature patterns:interpreting IPCC AR6 |
| |
| WANG Fei,ZHANG Hu,LIU Mengting,YU Xiaochao,ZHAO Shuyun.Dependence of climate feedbacks on temperature patterns:interpreting IPCC AR6[J].大气科学学报,2022,45(6):826-834. |
| |
| Authors: | WANG Fei ZHANG Hu LIU Mengting YU Xiaochao ZHAO Shuyun |
| |
| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the content of Chapter 7 from the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) contributed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I (WGI),this paper interprets the dependence of climate feedbacks on temperature patterns in detail.Compared with the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5),the understanding of the relationship between transient changes in climate feedback and evolving spatial patterns of surface temperature has been greatly improved in AR6.The assessments show that under greenhouse gas forcing,it is very likely that the warming in the Arctic will be more pronounced than on global average over the 21st century.On centennial timescales,the Antarctic will warm more than the tropics and the tropical Pacific Ocean east-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient will weaken,with greater warming in the east than the west.AR6 identifies changes in the degree of polar amplification over time,particularly in the Southern Hemisphere,and changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean east-west SST gradient over time as key factors affecting how climate feedbacks may evolve in the future.Climate feedbacks,particularly from clouds,are expected to become less negative (more amplifying) on multi-decadal timescales as the spatial pattern of surface warming evolves. |
| |
| Keywords: | IPCC AR6 climate feedback temperature pattern polar amplification |
|
| 点击此处可从《大气科学学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
