| 浙江省登陆热带气旋灾害影响评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 张颖超,张美娟,张中秋,王镇铭,范金平.浙江省登陆热带气旋灾害影响评估[J].大气科学学报,2013,36(2):229-234. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张颖超 张美娟 张中秋 王镇铭 范金平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学信息与控制学院,江苏南京,210044
2. 浙江省气象局,浙江杭州,310017 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY(QX)200806017，GYHY，江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了研究登陆浙江的热带气旋对当地社会经济的破坏程度,对登陆热带气旋的灾害影响进行了预测预警,以提高防台减灾服务水平.用模糊层次综合评价法对1981-2007年在浙江省登陆的热带气旋灾害的影响进行了评估.为了验证上述灾害影响评估模型的正确性,对热带气旋的实际灾情进行评估,并对灾害影响指数和灾情指数进行计算和分级.结果表明:热带气象灾害影响指数和灾情指数同级的一致率达92％,且灾害影响指数与相应直接经济损失的相关系数达0.79,说明该评估模型能够较好地评估热带气旋的灾害影响.
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| 关 键 词： | 模糊数学 热带气旋 灾害 评估 层次分析法 浙江省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/11/6 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/11/28 0:00:00 |
Evaluation on disaster influence of tropical cyclone landing over Zhejiang Province |
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| ZHANG Ying-chao,ZHANG Mei-juan,ZHANG Zhong-qiu,WANG Zhen-ming and FAN Jin-ping.Evaluation on disaster influence of tropical cyclone landing over Zhejiang Province[J].大气科学学报,2013,36(2):229-234. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Ying-chao ZHANG Mei-juan ZHANG Zhong-qiu WANG Zhen-ming and FAN Jin-ping |
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| Institution: | School of Information and Control, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China;School of Information and Control, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China;School of Information and Control, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China;Zhejiang Meteorological Bureau, Hangzhou 310017, China;School of Information and Control, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to research the degree of social economic damage caused by tropical cyclones(TC) landing in Zhejiang Province and improve the service level of typhoon prevention and disaster reduction,this paper evaluates the disaster influence of TC occurred in Zhejiang Province from 1981 to 2007 by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.In order to verify that the disaster effect assessment model is correct or not,the actual disaster situation of TC is evaluated,and the disaster influence index and the disaster index of TC are calculated and graded.Results show that the concordance rates between the disaster index and the disaster influence index can reach 92% for all samples.In addition,the correlation coefficient between the disaster influence index and the corresponding direct economic losses is 0.79.It indicates that the disaster effect assessment model can evaluate disaster influence of TC landing in Zhejiang Province. |
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| Keywords: | fuzzy mathematics tropical cyclone disaster evaluation analytic hierarchy process Zhejiang Province |
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