| 基于Copula函数的北京强降水频率及危险性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 曹伟华,梁旭东,赵晗萍,段小刚,张自银.基于Copula函数的北京强降水频率及危险性分析[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2016,74(5):772-783. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曹伟华 梁旭东 赵晗萍 段小刚 张自银 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所, 北京, 100089,中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京, 100081,北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京, 100875,北京师范大学统计学院, 北京, 100875,北京市气象局, 北京, 100089 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京市自然科学基金项目（8144046）、国家自然科学基金项目（41275076，41471424）、北京市科技计划项目（Z12110-0004912006）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 客观分析强降水事件的发生频率及其致灾因子危险性，能为局地洪涝灾害的防灾、减灾规划及灾害预警提供科学依据。探讨了基于二元Copula函数的强降水致灾变量联合分布及其在强降水危险性分析中的应用。利用北京地区2005-2014年逐时降水资料提取强降水事件案例，通过建立能反映两个主要致灾因素--降水持续时间和过程降水量依存关系的二元联合分布模型，计算了北京地区强降水事件条件重现期，并以此为基础开展危险性分析。研究表明，北京地区强降水事件的持续时间多小于24 h，且主要服从广义极值和对数正态分布，而过程降水量则更适用于广义极值分布；通过Gumbel Copula函数能较好刻画过程降水量与持续时间的相互依存关系。北京地区短时强降水重现期受持续时间影响明显，仅基于降水量的重现期估算会低估其致灾危险性，利用基于Copula函数的条件重现期能更合理描述不同强降水情景致灾因子的危险性特征及其空间差异性特征。北京地区持续时间小于12 h、过程降水量在50 mm以上的强降水事件多呈东北-西南走向，而持续时间在6 h以内的50 mm以上强降水则在北京城区及东北部地区更加频繁。
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| 关 键 词： | 北京 强降水 Copula函数 重现期 危险性 |
Copula-based frequency analysis and its application in hazard risk assessment of heavy rainfall in Beijing |
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| CAO Weihu,LIANG Xudong,ZHAO Hanping,DUAN Xiaogang and ZHANG Ziyin.Copula-based frequency analysis and its application in hazard risk assessment of heavy rainfall in Beijing[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2016,74(5):772-783. |
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| Authors: | CAO Weihu LIANG Xudong ZHAO Hanping DUAN Xiaogang and ZHANG Ziyin |
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| Institution: | Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China,State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China,Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China,School of Statistics, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China and Beijing Meteorological Service, Beijing 100089, China |
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| Abstract: | The objective analysis of the frequency and risk of heavy rainfall can provide scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation planning and disaster warning. In this study, the Copula methodology is applied to establish a bivariate Copula distribution model for heavy rainfall variables, i.e. the duration and accumulated precipitation, based on hourly rainfall data collected at 18 rain-gauge stations in Beijing during the period from 2005 to 2014. The conditional return period is then calculated and the risk of heavy rainfall is analyzed. These analyses demonstrate that the duration of heavy rainfall is less than 24 h in Beijing, which mainly follows the generalized extreme value (GEV) or logarithmic normal (LN) distributions, while accumulated precipitation is fitted to the GEV distribution in most stations. The Gumbel Copula is identified to be appropriate for describing the relationship between rainfall duration and accumulated precipitation for most gauges. The return period of short-duration rainfall is significantly influenced by the factor of duration in Beijing, which will result in the underestimation of heavy rainfall risk when only the factor of precipitation is considered. However, it is found that the conditional return period based on the bivariate Copula can comprehensively describe the property of heavy rainfall frequency and corresponding hazard risk. The heavy rainfall events with a duration less than 12 h and an accumulated precipitation of more than 50 mm often occur in an area extending from the northeast to southwest of Beijing, while the heavy rainfall events with duration less than 6 h and an accumulated precipitation of more than 50 mm occur more frequently in urban area and the northeastern area of Beijing. |
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| Keywords: | Beijing Heavy rainfall Copula Return period Risk |
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