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| 春季海温对中国夏季降水影响的诊断研究和预测试验 | |
| 引用本文： | 王蕾,张人禾,黄嘉佑.春季海温对中国夏季降水影响的诊断研究和预测试验[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2004,62(6):851-859. |
| 作者姓名： | 王蕾 张人禾 黄嘉佑 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 北京大学物理学院大气科学系,100871;中国气象局培训中心,北京,100081 2. 中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081 3. 北京大学物理学院大气科学系,北京,100871 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(40225012)和国家基础研究重大项目前期研究专项(2001CCB00500). |
| 摘 要： | 文中利用季降水异常集合的典型相关预测模式 ,以全球春季 (3～ 5月 )海温场作为因子场 ,对中国夏季降水场进行了诊断研究 ,并对 1998,1999及 2 0 0 0年这几个典型的中国夏季降水进行了回报试验。结果表明 ,春季海温与中国夏季降水之间存在较好的关系 ,春季海温在较大程度上决定了中国夏季降水雨带及其分布类型。考虑面积因子的集合典型相关预测方案对中国夏季降水具有较强的回报能力 ,此模式不仅能诊断出降水场和海温场中一些比较典型的空间模态和时间变化规律 ,而且可以再现 1998和 2 0 0 0年中国大部分地区的旱涝灾害。揭示了全球春季海温的异常变化在中国夏季 (6～ 8月 )降水异常中的作用。 |
| 关 键 词： | 集合的典型相关预测模式 季节降水预测 春季(3～5月)海表温度异常 夏季(6～8月)降水场 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004/5/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年5月18日 |
DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES AND HINDCAST EXPERIMENTS OF SPRING SST ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA |
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| Wang Lei,Zhang Renhe and Huang Jiayou.DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES AND HINDCAST EXPERIMENTS OF SPRING SST ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2004,62(6):851-859. | |
| Authors: | Wang Lei Zhang Renhe and Huang Jiayou |
| Institution: | Department of Atmosphere Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871;Training Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081;China Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081;Department of Atmosphere Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871 |
| Abstract: | Based on the ensemble canonical correlation prediction (E-CCP) model for seasonal precipitation anomaly, diagnostic analyses and hindcast experiments were made on summer (JJA) precipitation in China for these typical years, such as 1998,1999 and 2000, using global spring sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) as predictor fields. The results show that the correlation between global spring (MAM) SSTA and summer precipitation in China is obvious. To a great extent, MAM SSTAs determine the patterns of summer rain belt in China. The E-CCP scheme with an area-factor performs well in the forecasting of summer precipitation in China. It not only can make out some typical space modes and their time changes in precipitation and SST field, but also can reproduce the drought/flood of summer in 1998 and 2000. |
| Keywords: | Ensemble canonical correlation prediction model Seasonal precipitation forecasting Spring (MAM) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and Summer (JJA) precipitation in China strong signal |
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