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WRF模式与Topmodel模型在洪水预报中的耦合预报试验研究
引用本文:殷志远,王志斌,李俊,杨芳,彭涛.WRF模式与Topmodel模型在洪水预报中的耦合预报试验研究[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2017,75(4):672-684.
作者姓名:殷志远  王志斌  李俊  杨芳  彭涛
作者单位:中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室, 武汉, 430205,中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室, 武汉, 430205,中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室, 武汉, 430205,湖北省气象信息与技术保障中心, 武汉, 430074,中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室, 武汉, 430205
基金项目:湖北省气象局科技发展基金重点项目(2015Z02)。
摘    要:基于空间分辨率90 m×90 m的湖北荆门漳河水库数字高程模型(DEM)地形数据,并从2012-2015年选取了20场洪水过程(其中16场用于模拟,4场用于检验),将华中区域数值天气预报业务模式WRF提供的三重嵌套空间分辨率3 km×3 km、9 km×9 km和27 km×27 km预报降雨与集总式新安江模型以及半分布式水文模型Topmodel耦合进行洪水预报试验。通过对比试验得到以下结论:当流域降雨的时、空分布比较均匀时,集总式新安江模型可以较准确地预报出洪峰流量和峰现时间,而当降雨时、空分布差异较大时,预报误差也会随之增大。基于DEM数据建立的Topmodel模型可以反映不同降雨时、空分布下洪水预报结果的差异,试验结果表明,3 km×3 km和9 km×9 km洪水预报的输出结果比较接近,且在确定性系数和洪峰相对误差上要优于27 km×27 km的洪水预报结果,而在峰现时差的预报上,则是27 km×27 km的洪水预报结果与实测较吻合。通过研究还发现,虽然当流域降雨的时、空分布存在一定差异时,3种空间分辨率的WRF预报降雨均无法预报出与实测一致的降雨分布,但是在某些情况下,当降雨的时间分布误差和空间分布误差相抵消时,仍然可以得到较为准确的洪水预报结果。因此,高时、空分辨率的模式预报降雨并不一定就能对洪水预报结果产生正贡献,需要通过反复尝试寻找水文模型和数值模式耦合的最佳时、空分辨率。

关 键 词:水文气象耦合预报  WRF  Topmodel  半分布式  漳河流域
收稿时间:2016/9/21 0:00:00
修稿时间:2017/4/12 0:00:00

An experimental study on the prediction of flood using coupled WRF-Topmodel model
YIN Zhiyuan,WANG Zhibin,LI Jun,YANG Fang and PENG Tao.An experimental study on the prediction of flood using coupled WRF-Topmodel model[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2017,75(4):672-684.
Authors:YIN Zhiyuan  WANG Zhibin  LI Jun  YANG Fang and PENG Tao
Institution:Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430205, China,Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430205, China,Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430205, China,Hubei Province Meteorological Information and Support Centre, Wuhan 430074, China and Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430205, China
Abstract:Based on the DEM terrain data of Zhanghe reservoir in Jingmen City on Hubei Province with a spatial resolution 90 m×90 m, twenty flood processes selected from 2012-2015 (sixteen of which were used for simulation and four were used for verification), the operational forecast of WRF model over triple-nesting domains with spatial resolutions of 3 km×3 km, 9 km×9 km and 27 km×27 km in Central China was combined with results of the lumped Xin''anjiang model and the semi-distribution hydrological model, i.e. the Topmodel, in the present study for experimental prediction of flood. Results of comparative experiments are analyzed and major conclusions are given below. In the case when spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall was uniform in the basin, the lumped Xin''anjiang model could accurately forecast the peak flow and peak time; when the spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall became uneven, the forecasting error also increased. The Topmodel based on the DEM data could reflect the difference in flood forecast for rainfall with different spatial and temporal distributions. The results show that the outputs of WRF at the 3 km×3 km and 9 km×9 km domains were close to each other for flood forecasting and both were better than the output at the 27 km×27 km domain based on the deterministic coefficient and relative error of peak forecast. However, the result of 27 km×27 km domain was good at forecasting the peak time of flood. Further analysis also found that the WRF at the three spatial resolutions couldn''t realistically forecast the spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall, but the WRF forecast could still be accurate when the forecast error of temporal distribution offset the error of spatial distribution. Therefore, the model forecast of rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolution may not be able to yield more accurate flood forecasting results. The optimal spatial and temporal resolution for the coupled hydrological model and numerical weather forecast model needs to be determined by numerous experimental studies.
Keywords:Hydrological and meteorological coupling forecasting  WRF  Topmodel  Semi-distributed  Zhanghe basin
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