| 数值预报误差订正技术中相似-动力方法的发展 |
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| 作者姓名： | YU Haipeng HUANG Jianping LI Weijing FENG Guolin |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州大学大气科学学院, 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室, 兰州, 730000;中国人民解放军93811部队86分队, 兰州, 730020;兰州大学大气科学学院, 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室, 兰州, 730000;国家气候中心, 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 北京, 100081;国家气候中心, 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 北京, 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201206009), the National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB955301), and the Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities (B13045). |
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| 摘 要： | Due to the increasing requirement for high-level weather and climate forecasting accuracy, it is necessary to exploit a strategy for model error correction while developing numerical modeling and data assimilation techniques. This study classifies the correction strategies according to the types of forecast errors, and reviews recent studies on these correction strategies. Among others, the analogue-dynamical method has been developed in China, which combines statistical methods with the dynamical model, corrects model errors based on analogue information, and effectively utilizes historical data in dynamical forecasts. In this study, the fundamental principles and technical solutions of the analogue-dynamical method and associated development history for forecasts on different timescales are introduced. It is shown that this method can effectively improve medium- and extended-range forecasts, monthly-average circulation forecast, and short-term climate prediction. As an innovative technique independently developed in China, the analogue- dynamical method plays an important role in both weather forecast and climate prediction, and has potential applications in wider fields.
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| 关 键 词： | 动力学方法 数值模拟 误差修正 数值预报 资料同化技术 短期气候预测 预测误差 动力学模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/3/31 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/7/14 0:00:00 |
Development of the Analogue-Dynamical Method for Error Correction of Numerical Forecasts |
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| YU Haipeng,HUANG Jianping,LI Weijing,FENG Guolin.Development of the Analogue-Dynamical Method for Error Correction of Numerical Forecasts[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2014,28(5):934-947. |
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| Authors: | YU Haipeng HUANG Jianping LI Weijing and FENG Guolin |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change,Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000
2. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Due to the increasing requirement for high-level weather and climate forecasting accuracy, it is necessary to exploit a strategy for model error correction while developing numerical modeling and data assimilation techniques. This study classifies the correction strategies according to the types of forecast errors, and reviews recent studies on these correction strategies. Among others, the analogue-dynamical method has been developed in China, which combines statistical methods with the dynamical model, corrects model errors based on analogue information, and effectively utilizes historical data in dynamical forecasts. In this study, the fundamental principles and technical solutions of the analogue-dynamical method and associated development history for forecasts on different timescales are introduced. It is shown that this method can effectively improve mediumand extended-range forecasts, monthly-average circulation forecast, and short-term climate prediction. As an innovative technique independently developed in China, the analoguedynamical method plays an important role in both weather forecast and climate prediction, and has potential applications in wider fields. |
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| Keywords: | analogue-dynamical method numerical model error correction historical data |
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