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| 厄尔尼诺衰减年东亚夏季大气环流和降水异常的耦合模式后报试验 | |
| 引用本文： | 智海,俞永强,严厉,张文君,李志强.厄尔尼诺衰减年东亚夏季大气环流和降水异常的耦合模式后报试验[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2012,70(4):779-788. |
| 作者姓名： | 智海 俞永强 严厉 张文君 李志强 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室和大气科学学院,南京,210044;中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京,100029 2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京,100029 3. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室和大气科学学院,南京,210044 4. 中国海洋环境预报中心,北京,100081 |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目，国家自然科学基金项目，中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG) 2011年开放课题、江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目，国家公益性行业(气象)专项 |
| 摘 要： | 利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)新一代耦合气候模式(FGOALS)进行了气候异常季节后报试验,通过对1982—2005年7个个例的分析,探讨了厄尔尼诺衰减年夏季东亚大气环流和降水异常发生的物理机制。分析结果表明:FGOALS可以模拟出厄尔尼诺衰减年夏季相关气候场的异常态特征,表现为在西北太平洋为负海温异常,在热带印度洋为正海温异常,从而导致西北太平洋地区大气中低层异常反气旋环流的维持,其反气旋的西南部及西部的偏南及西南气流造成中国长江中下游地区降水的异常增多。在提前3—9个月的预测模拟中,模式可以模拟出气候场的异常演变,随着预测时间的延长,产生局地耦合的西北太平洋海表温度异常信号变弱,使得模拟出的西北太平洋反气旋异常偏弱、中心东移,从而导致影响东亚降水的气候场的异常变弱,降水异常区偏东。模拟结果也揭示出,西北太平洋海表温度负异常是厄尔尼诺异常信号的转换模态,并且,由于局地海-气相互作用,热带海温异常信号可以持续到第2年夏季,从而引起东亚大气环流和降水异常。对于东亚降水的季节预测出现误差可能是模式对ENSO的模拟偏差造成的,随着预测时间延长,模式模拟的厄尔尼诺信号偏弱,这将使得海表温度异常偏弱,同时相关物理场的异常响应也减弱。 |
| 关 键 词： | 耦合模式 季节预测 东亚夏季降水 厄尔尼诺 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/5/11 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/12/6 0:00:00 |
Retrospective prediction in a coupled model over East Asia during El Nino decaying phase |
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| ZHI Hai,YU Yongqiang,YAN Li,ZHANG Wenjun and LI Zhiqiang.Retrospective prediction in a coupled model over East Asia during El Nino decaying phase[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2012,70(4):779-788. | |
| Authors: | ZHI Hai YU Yongqiang YAN Li ZHANG Wenjun and LI Zhiqiang |
| Institution: | 1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education and College of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China 2.The National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China 3.National Marine Environment Forecast Center,Beijing 100081,China |
| Abstract: | The present work evaluates the simulations of rainfall responses over East Asia to the El Nino in a coupled model (FGOALS) and discusses the possible effect of El Nino on the East Asian rainfall during its decaying summer in terms of the seasonal forecast. The results show that the FGOALS model can reasonably simulate the El Nino related climate anomalies during the decaying summer, such as the negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the western North Pacific (WNP), the anomalous anticyclone over the WNP, and increasing rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. For 1 to 3 leading season forecast simulation, the model can roughly simulate the evolution of climate anomalies. However, the longer the predicting time is, the weaker the SSTA and anomalous anticyclone over the WNP are, which tends to cause the decreased rainfall over East Asia. The simulations reveal that the SSTA associated with El Nino can remain for about three seasons. This provides a solid basis for the rainfall forecast over East Asia. In addition, it is suggested that the error of simulated East Asian rainfall may be related to the departure of ENSO simulation due to model bias. |
| Keywords: | Coupled model Climate prediction East Asian summer rainfall El Nino |
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