Track of Super Typhoon Haiyan Predicted by a Typhoon Model for the South China Sea |
| |
| Authors: | CHEN Zitong ZHANG Chengzhong HUANG Yanyan FENG Yerong ZHONG Shuixin DAI Guangfeng XU Daosheng and YANG Zhaoli |
| |
| Institution: | Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080;Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080;Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080;Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080;Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080;Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080;Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080;Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080 |
| |
| Abstract: | Super Typhoon Haiyan was the most notable typhoon in 2013. In this study, results from the operational prediction of Haiyan by a tropical regional typhoon model for the South China Sea are analyzed. It is shown that the model has successfully reproduced Haiyan's rapid passage through the Philippines and its northward deflection after its second landfall in Vietnam. However, the predicted intensity of Haiyan is weaker than the observed. An analysis of higher-resolution model simulations indicates that the storm is characterized by an upper-level warm core during its mature stage and a deep layer of easterly flow. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to study the impact of certain physical processes such as the interaction between stratus and cumulus clouds on the improvement of the typhoon intensity forecast. It is found that appropriate boundary layer and cumulus convective parameterizations, and orographic gravity-wave parameterization, as well as improved initial conditions and increased horizontal grid resolution, all help to improve the intensity forecast of Haiyan. |
| |
| Keywords: | Super Typhoon Haiyan typhoon track typhoon intensity numerical weather prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
