| EXTRA-SEASONAL PREDICTIONS OF SUMMER RAINFALL IN CHINA AND ENSO IN 2001 BY CLIMATE MODELS |
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| 作者姓名： | 李清泉 赵宗慈 |
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| 作者单位： | National Climate Center Beijing 100081，National Climate Center，Beijing 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | This research was supported by Subproject 96-908-02-05 and 96-908-06-03-03 of National Key Project-“Studies on Short-term Climate Prediction System in China”. |
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| 摘 要： | China is a monsoon country.The most rainfalls in China concentrate on the summer seasons.More frequent floods or droughts occur in some parts of China.Therefore,the prediction ofsummer rainfall in China is a significant issue.As we know,the obvious impacts of the sea surfacetemperature anomalies(SSTA)on the summer rainfall over China have been noticed.Thepredictions of the SSTA have been involved in the research.The key project on short-term climate modeling prediction system has been finished in 2000.The system included an atmospheric general circulation model named AGCM95,a coupledatmospheric-oceanic general circulation model named AOGCM95,a regional climate model overChina named RegCM95,a high-resolution Indian-Pacific OGCM named IPOGCM95,and asimplified atmosphere-ocean dynamic model system named SAOMS95.They became theoperational prediction models of National Climate Center(NCC).Extra-seasonal predictions in 2001 have been conducted by several climate models,which werethe AGCM95,AOGCM95,RegCM95,IPOGCM95,AIPOGCM95,OSU/NCC,SAOMS95,IAPAPOGCM and CAMS/ZS.All of those models predicted the summer precipitation over China and/or the annual SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean in the Modeling Prediction Workshop held inMarch 2001.The assessments have shown that the most models predicted the distributions of main rain beltover Huanan and parts of Jiangnan and droughts over Huabei-Hetao and Huaihe River Valleyreasonably.The most models predicted successfully that a weaker cold phase of the SSTA over thecentral and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean would continue in 2001.The evaluations of extra-seasonal predictions have also indicated that the models had a certaincapability of predicting the SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the summer rainfall overChina.The assessment also showed that multi-model ensemble(super ensembles)predictionsprovided the better forecasts for both SSTA and summer rainfall in 2001,compared with the singlemodel.It is a preliminary assessment for the extra-seasonal predictions by the climate models.Thefurther investigations will be carried out.The model system should be developed and improved.
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EXTRA-SEASONAL PREDICTIONS OF SUMMER RAINFALL IN CHINA AND ENSO IN 2001 BY CLIMATE MODELS |
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| LI Qingquan ZHAO Zongci National Climate Center,Beijing.EXTRA-SEASONAL PREDICTIONS OF SUMMER RAINFALL IN CHINA AND ENSO IN 2001 BY CLIMATE MODELS[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2002(4). |
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| Authors: | LI Qingquan ZHAO Zongci National Climate Center Beijing |
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| Institution: | LI Qingquan ZHAO Zongci National Climate Center,Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | China is a monsoon country.The most rainfalls in China concentrate on the summer seasons. More frequent floods or droughts occur in some parts of China.Therefore,the prediction of summer rainfall in China is a significant issue.As we know,the obvious impacts of the sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA)on the summer rainfall over China have been noticed.The predictions of the SSTA have been involved in the research. The key project on short-term climate modeling prediction system has been finished in 2000. The system included an atmospheric general circulation model named AGCM95,a coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model named AOGCM95,a regional climate model over China named RegCM95,a high-resolution Indian-Pacific OGCM named IPOGCM95,and a simplified atmosphere-ocean dynamic model system named SAOMS95.They became the operational prediction models of National Climate Center(NCC). Extra-seasonal predictions in 2001 have been conducted by several climate models,which were the AGCM95,AOGCM95,RegCM95,IPOGCM95,AIPOGCM95,OSU/NCC,SAOMS95,IAP APOGCM and CAMS/ZS.All of those models predicted the summer precipitation over China and/ or the annual SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean in the Modeling Prediction Workshop held in March 2001. The assessments have shown that the most models predicted the distributions of main rain belt over Huanan and parts of Jiangnan and droughts over Huabei-Hetao and Huaihe River Valley reasonably.The most models predicted successfully that a weaker cold phase of the SSTA over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean would continue in 2001. The evaluations of extra-seasonal predictions have also indicated that the models had a certain capability of predicting the SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the summer rainfall over China.The assessment also showed that multi-model ensemble(super ensembles)predictions provided the better forecasts for both SSTA and summer rainfall in 2001,compared with the single model. It is a preliminary assessment for the extra-seasonal predictions by the climate models.The further investigations will be carried out.The model system should be developed and improved. |
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| Keywords: | extra-seasonal prediction climate model assessment precipitation super ensembles |
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