| Monthly Extended Predicting Experiments with Nonlinear Regional Prediction.PartⅡ:Improvement of Wave Component Prediction |
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| 引用本文： | 陈伯民,纪立人,杨培才,张道民.Monthly Extended Predicting Experiments with Nonlinear Regional Prediction.PartⅡ:Improvement of Wave Component Prediction[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2006(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈伯民 纪立人 杨培才 张道民 |
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| 作者单位： | Shanghai Climate Center Shanghai Meteorological Bureau，LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences，LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences，LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Shanghai 200030 LASG，Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100029，Beijing 100029，Beijing 100029，Beijing 100029 |
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| 基金项目： | Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40175013，the National Key Project for Development of Science and Technology (96-908-02-01)，the Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (ZKCX2-SW-210). |
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| 摘 要： | Based on Chen et al. (2006), the scheme of the combination of the pentad-mean zonal height departure nonlinear prediction with the T42L9 model prediction was designed, in which the pentad zonal heights at all the 12-initial-value-input isobar levels from 50 hPa to 1000 hPa except 200, 300, 500, and 700 hPa were derived from nonlinear forecasts of the four levels by means of a good correlation between neighboring levels. Then the above pentad zonal heights at 12 isobar-levels were transformed to the spectrum coefficients of the temperature at each integration step of T42L9 model. At last, the nudging was made. On account of a variety of error accumulation, the pentad zonal components of the monthly height at isobar levels output by T42L9 model were replaced by the corresponding nonlinear results once more when integration was over. Multiple case experiments showed that such combination of two kinds of prediction made an improvement in the wave component as a result of wave-flow nonlinear interaction while reducing the systematical forecast errors. Namely the monthly-mean height anomaly correlation coefficients over the high- and mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, over the Southern Hemisphere and over the globe increased respectively from 0.249 to 0.347, from 0.286 to 0.387, and from 0.343 to 0.414 (relative changes of 31.5%, 41.0%, and 18.3%). The monthly-mean root-mean-square error (RMSE) of T42L9 model over the three areas was considerably decreased, the relative change over the globe reached 44.2%. The monthly-mean anomaly correlation coefficients of wave 4-9 over the areas were up to 0.392, 0.200, and 0.295, with the relative change of 53.8%, 94.1%, and 61.2%, and correspondingly their RMSEs were decreased respectively with the rate of 8.5%, 6.3%, and 8.1%. At the same time the monthly-mean pattern of parts of cases were presented better.
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