| PRELIMINARY STUDY OF BAROTROPIC STOCHASTIC DIFFERENCE MODEL APPLIED TO WEATHER PREDICTION |
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| 作者姓名： | Zhu Shengming Cao Hongxing |
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| 作者单位： | Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Science Institute Nanjing，Academy of Meteorological Science，State Meteorological Adiministration，Beijing |
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| 摘 要： | In order to consider both the deterministic and the stochastic property of atmospheric motion simul-taneously,in this paper,the weather prediction is proposed as the problem of the evolution of meteorologicalfield.The historical viewpoint of atmospheric motion is emphasized here.Based on time series analysis te-chnique,a stochastic-dynamical model with multiple initial fields is derived.Thus,weather forecasting is sum-meal up as a problem of solving a set of stochastic difference equations.For the barotropic atmosphere,thenumerical solutions of the equations are obtained by using the method of empirical orthogonal functions(EOF),and examples of medium-range weather prediction are given here.Meanwhile,selecting the order oftime series,i.e.,determining the number of initial fields properly,is also discussed.
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| 收稿时间： | 1989/8/23 0:00:00 |
PRELIMINARY STUDY OF BAROTROPIC STOCHASTIC DIFFERENCE MODEL APPLIED TO WEATHER PREDICTION |
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| Zhu Shengming,Cao Hongxing.PRELIMINARY STUDY OF BAROTROPIC STOCHASTIC DIFFERENCE MODEL APPLIED TO WEATHER PREDICTION[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1991,5(1):90-100. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Shengming and Cao Hongxing |
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| Institution: | Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Science Institute, Nanjing;Academy of Meteorological Science, State Meteorological Adiministration, Beijing |
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| Abstract: | In order to consider both the deterministic and the stochastic property of atmospheric motion simul- taneously,in this paper,the weather prediction is proposed as the problem of the evolution of meteorological field.The historical viewpoint of atmospheric motion is emphasized here.Based on time series analysis te- chnique,a stochastic-dynamical model with multiple initial fields is derived.Thus,weather forecasting is sum- meal up as a problem of solving a set of stochastic difference equations.For the barotropic atmosphere,the numerical solutions of the equations are obtained by using the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF),and examples of medium-range weather prediction are given here.Meanwhile,selecting the order of time series,i.e.,determining the number of initial fields properly,is also discussed. |
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| Keywords: | barotropic stochastic difference model empirical orthogonal function weather forecasting verification of prediction |
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