A Comparison of Breeding and Ensemble Transform Vectors for Global Ensemble Generation |
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| Authors: | Guo Deng Hua Tian Xiaoli Li Jing Chen Jiandong Gong Meiyan Jiao |
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| Institution: | 1. National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
2. China Meteorological Administration,Beijing,100081 |
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| Abstract: | To compare the initial perturbation techniques using breeding vectors and ensemble transform vectors, three ensemble prediction
systems using both initial perturbation methods but with different ensemble member sizes based on the spectral model T213/L31
are constructed at the National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration (NMC/CMA). A series of ensemble
verification scores such as forecast skill of the ensemble mean, ensemble resolution, and ensemble reliability are introduced
to identify the most important attributes of ensemble forecast systems. The results indicate that the ensemble transform technique
is superior to the breeding vector method in light of the evaluation of anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), which is a
deterministic character of the ensemble mean, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and spread, which are of probabilistic attributes,
and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and its decomposition. The advantage of the ensemble transform approach
is attributed to its orthogonality among ensemble perturbations as well as its consistence with the data assimilation system.
Therefore, this study may serve as a reference for configuration of the best ensemble prediction system to be used in operation. |
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| Keywords: | breeding ensemble transform ensemble prediction system |
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